I have been asking myself that question often lately, as I watch CL fall back into a manageable range. ~52 to ~58. At the time when I was working with it, the range was about 3 bux. I was comfortable with that range. Then it felt like the range was expanding and I didn't like it. So I took a break and started watching other instruments. Fell in love with the ever-rising NQ. So I have been working with that. It's been a tough ride. But even as I see CL holding that range, with that occasional pop up a few bux per bbl, I am scared to hell of it, because it is now following the S&P too unnervingly. If I want to get away from equities, I cannot escape to CL, because it is no longer independent of the equities. Not really. Not to mention the maddening contra-directions CL has been taking on report releases these days.
Amahrix, I tell you what my friend, Fast Forward to 1:10 and just watch closely. And "relax" yourself. Money talks and bullshit walks. Do you think these women trying to hear all this random fool and lucky stuff. All they wanna know is where the money at. Read my post again https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...echnical-analysis.336198/page-11#post-4932177
Overnight, kindly, re-read your post. Because all I read was that you got comfortable here, felt something there, fearful here, fearful there, stuck here, want to move there. I have reason to believe that you do not know what you’re doing. Good luck, my ET friend.
The Fallacy of Forecasting: 1) Being right on a random variable X does not mean making money off it. 2) Payoff function f(x) needs to be aligned with what you're forecasting. 3) In fact, payoff function f(x) is never X and f(x) can be very complicated. 4) In real life, most people who think you have to focus on X are academics or idiots. 5) Payoff function f(x) is what you focus on when you make a decision. 6) It's much easier to understand the function of your random variable than the random variable itself. 7) You don't have to be right about the world, you have to make decisions that are convex; decisions that make sense. 8) Paranoia is entirely justified if your payoff function f(x) is concave. 9) Overpricing or underpricing probabilities is not what matters, its your payoff function that matters. @SunTrader doesn't understand this. I blocked him so maybe someone can save his portfolio if you pass the message. It doesn't matter if you are right or wrong about what you forecast. Getting the forecast right or wrong is actually not the point. You need a payoff function aligned with the forecast. & it's this very payoff function that decisions are(should) be based off of in life. It's really simple concept, but many forget. Many are focused on win rate and believe if they have a high win rate that this is enough. Too narrow-minded. Payoff function example: Disclaimer: Simple statistical concerns are often well clarified through the use of gambling examples. Example from "The Business of Options" by Martin P. O'Connell, pg. 5 Suppose I would like to bet that I can roll a 4 in a single roll of one die. Of course, if you insist on even odds, I'm not going to bet because I know I only have one chance in six of winning. On the other hand, if I can get 10-to-1 odds, I am going to make that bet. I am going to make it fully expecting to lose, and I am still going to think about it as a business. Suppose I make the 10-to-1 bet and roll the die and get a 2 instead of a 4. Was I wrong? Of course not. I'm no dumber than before the roll, and also no dumber than if I had rolled a 4. If I had rolled a 4, the result might make me feel brilliant. That feeling would be simple emotional weakness. To be statistically passive is not just to make a trade without thinking I know the result. It also requires ignoring the temptation to think that the result indicates the quality of the trade. Learn more here: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/are-you-too-anxious-to-win.334884/ Edit: Posted this as a new thread so the message can get out to the folks who stopped following this thread. Very important concept.
this is a discussion about trading. it has got nothing to do about trading. i am asking it to be shifted to it's appropriate place.
you say all traders make money only because of luck and that you do not believe they have any knowledge. so you are the only knowledgeable one here?