You mentioned you apply probability to events. (Unless you can clarify further), this means you associate odds to an event. We cannot find the odds like we do on a roulette table. This is what the quote highlighted. I recommend not committing any more Ad Hominem Fallacies going forward.
I am the first to be a proponent of keeping things simple, but your view of trading is too over simplistic. Here is your answer, it was 99.99% luck. Did you know that I can have a 90% win rate for 3 years and it can still be a result of sheer luck. It certainly gives the illusion that it isn't, but it is. Assuming your enduring the risk of ruin during that time period. I can clarify further upon request.
Did I ever deny that a random system is not being constantly explored in our world with mathematical and statistical models? Did I say we don't operate in a world of probabilities. We can induce the likely behavior of random system under different conditions, but there are conditions and circumstances that will pop up that no human thought were possible. Especially in the markets. The point is if your strategy is built around inductive reasoning, you're 100% set to fail over the long term. No question. A lot of strategies are built around only this type of thinking. This is why practically all day trading TA-using players end up in the graveyard.
Jayboy, did you know that you can have a 90% win rate, say over 3 years, and it can easily be attributed to 99.9% luck? If the strategy entails risk of ruin, or if the strategy has a statistical expectation that is negative over the long term, all gains realized is precisely a result of luck. Because law of large numbers is your enemy, not your friend. Therefore, the more you trade, the more likely your expected to hit ruin as time passes. Enjoy those gains; think of it as a loan from Mr. Market that will be called back plus interest, and penalties for your arrogance. As far as Kelly goes, guy is a genius. & I know exactly what day trading is. In fact, I trade daily but don't day trade(in the traditional sense) ;p.
The market is the turkey. The butcher is reality. If you want to survive inside the market, you need to take prudent measures to not be caught in a act of slaughtering by reality. You need to be suspicious of your knowledge, suspicious of your tools, suspicious of everything. One needs to be paranoid. You need to not only rely on inductive reasoning. (Unlike traditional day traders). Gains made in market under the exposure to ruin is a result of luck. Gains made on a strategy that has a statistical expectation that is negative is a result of pure, sheer luck. Day traders take their TA tools tooo seriously. Day traders lose and blame markets not their tools. And they rinse and repeat until they're depleted of all cash.
Probability yes or no. Not the odds of which. I recommend you read something besides Taleb. Coming up with fallacies, Ad Hominem or otherwise, when there are none.
Please give an example. What about an event you're not expecting, what do you do about that whilst your exposed inside of a trade? Nevertheless, please give an example.
I recommend you attack my points with some empirical evidence instead of being triggered by an author of a quote. Do note: I am a (skeptical) empiricist.
Look, look a "Black Swan" event dayssssssssssss after the top - which EW and fib time/price pointed to and after 3 major support levels were broken:
Oh nice, that's why your tool is 100% accurate and you have a 100% prediction rate with it right? How're you not a multi-billionaire already. Filled with Fallacious argument. Fool. Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism,refers to the common tendency for people to perceive events that have already occurred as having been more predictable than they actually were before the events took place. Your post is meaningless , in fact, it only strengthens my point. Your tool is so reliable, wow....!!! That's why you have better returns than Medallion Fund. Give me a real life "successful" example of how you use probability in calculating yes/no events in the marketplace, i'm waiting.