Look at where it closed and where it re-opened the next day. But for the fact some got burned in after hours period (happens all the time) "Black Swan" was really a White Ghost. Nothing to see here move along. Naturally you won't ... get it.
The anti-day trading threads pop up every so often. The last one I recall was the “is trading itself a bad trade?” Which reached a similar number of pages in a short time. I remember that OP contributed over 100 wordy posts in 10 days, which I thought was pretty intense, but this OP has him beat with 300+ posts in 5 or 6 days. To me, there were some reasonable points shared on both sides of the thread debate, but too much vitriol to dig through.
Yes, Taleb’s work on ‘Black Swans’ is seminal and important. But your mandate that financial markets are purely random activities punctuated by Black Swan events is superficial and simplistic. But you and Taleb appear to have common personality traits.
I never said the “activities” are random. Randomness is incomplete information. Now I know you have no idea what it is I’m even talking about.
Yea, I understand that. But for us to look into a chart and extrapolate future movements/events/activity is arrogance at its finest. It contains incomplete information. It’s random in this sense. The turkey and the butcher. Butcher is higher dimension and more knowledgable than the turkey. Turkey, looking back at its path, would never suspect that tomorrow will be thanksgiving day, he is unaware. He has no reason to believe that tomorrow will be any different than the past. The butcher knows well ahead of time when he will kill the turkey. The turkey looking back at its chart, has no idea that his life will “spontaneously“ end tomorrow. No data in his life will have predicted the exact date/time of his demise. See what I’m saying? It was random to the turkey, not to the butcher.
I’d love to know what you think my premises are by the way. 30 of you are professional strawmanners or just dyslexic. I’m going to have to conclude that you’re no different.