@SunTrader I challenge you to respond to my turkey problem proposed above. Now do you understand or is your disgust of me in the way?
is that randomness? or is it just unpredictable? are human beings behavior random or unpredictable? are crowds random are belief systems random
I know of someone that everyone thought and believed he was very happy. Showed no signs of any underlying issues. Commits suicide, completely shocks the family. They tell everyone they wouldn't never imagined it, never saw it coming, never thought it could be possibly, that "just last night he was so happy before going home and jumping off the balcony.. All the loved ones around him never had a clue! He hid it all along. Market can behave this way too! Because market = people. and people = unpredictable, especially groups of people. Yes, human behavior is unpredictable.
You've lost and they've found. I'll save you the next post which will be "what have I lost" ...Your sense of reality. Waiting for you to answer the turkey post. Peace!
To the turkey, everyday looks like the past, he has no idea when his head is going to get chopped off. The butcher knows exactly when he is going to kill the turkey. To the butcher, turkey's doomsday was not random but planned. To the turkey, it was random. Try not to be the f*cking turkey! MAKES SENSE? @volpri @SunTrader @padutrader @maxinger @d08 @wrbtrader @bpr @Overnight @themickey @ZTrader888 @cha @soulfire @VPhantom @Ashk @tommcginnis @ElectricSavant @Nobert @greggraz @TheBigShort @S-Trader @tomorton @lindq @Scataphagos @speedo @dozu888 @Option_Attack @gaussian @Evermore2017 @T-Mex @MKTrader @jl1575 @jayboy @piezoe @imjohn @R1234 @expiated @Steve Alexander @Buy1Sell2 @marc82much @Evermore2017 and anybody else who has contributed... I present to you... the problem of induction. Strategies based only on inductive reasoning like strats most day trading TA players use... it don't work, “sonny”! Now you can see how luck absolutely has played a major role thus far their earnings!
Being the aspiring critical thinker that you are, you would know that this example is a false equivalence when compared to the market. Your beliefs have fossilized your thinking and will continue to affect your perception to further your pov. As for the turkey, it's either conscious or isn't not. If it's conscious, then at the moment after death it will have retained it's consciousness or not. In either case death doesn't exist from the viewpoint of turkey consciousness. If it's consciousness did not exist the moment after death, then all it knew was being alive. If it's consciousness did exist the moment after death then death was not the ending of consciousness thus death of consciousness does not exist. Beliefs are like turkeys. The market is like the butcher. The map is not the territory. Everything that you have been arrogantly espousing is a map.
No, you're mistaken. Please.. For the love of God! You need a strategy that does NOT resemble the turkey. This is where ergodicity comes in, a concept not familiar to literally any retail day trader! (Those that want to learn more, go read Ole Peters). You're playing inside time probability but want the same or better returns of the ensemble. You're playing the turkey game, and ruin to you is the absorbing barrier, to some its -30% drawdown, to others its simply ruin.
you responded to quick, I know you did not even attempt to understand anything I have presented. The article debunks your hypothesis. To passerbyers- this man is completely wrong. COMPLETELY! Go look for yourself.