So short term is random and long term is predictable? Even Nassim Taleb would be disappointed in you. It's quite clear, that your investment horizon is long term and you have tried your hand at day trading with no success. When we get a bear market, I am sure you will be saying the long term charts are random to. You need to wake up and realize you suck at trading, end of discussion.
Goshhhhhh these straw mans tonight, I’m So damn tired of them. Makes things boring because It’s like an exit on a highway that I have to take to get you back on track and I gotta slow myself down. 1 day chart contains 99.999999% noise 1 year chart contains, say 50% noise 50% signal If you want to access information, you’ll have better *chance* doing so looking at some signal rather than NONE. Nice theory about my trading strat. You’re right I’m a broke block. Now shut up About ME and get back to the TOPIC which you unfollowed 4 pages ago.(truly am Happy you’re here tho. It’s 4:36am and I’m the only one up) Serious note: there are innumerable trading strategies, I trade short term derivatives but I do not fool myself into my trades with Randomness, I used to tho. I just make a shit ton of bets with risk of ruin hedged and aim to survive long enough to collect. I don’t need to tell you the replacement strategy to this hoax that is day trading with technical analysis Edit: If you needed to strawman me to get yourself out of the truth bombs you could've just asked, i would've made a separate post for you to make you feel better about yourself, next time just ask. i'm charitable. And as far as Nassim goes, he is not inventor of these ideas, he popularized them against the backdrop of finance but they've existed for centuries. People who are honest with themselves understand the very moment they're.... honest with themselves. wth
I trade daily, but don't day trade. I have a long term investment horizon but I place short-term trades. It's like a highway, but I give myself exits every 25-30 miles. Also who voted to give you the liberty of ending the discussion, how insecure are you 1-10?
Interesting scenario that says quite a bit about market commentators but nothing about private retail trading.
PS: Are you by any chance Nassim Nicholas Taleb? You come across well educated but also somewhat jaded as if obstructed in your life ambitions, and you very definitely write as didactically as he does - another reason why I have hated reading his (your?) work and would avoid reading any more of it on any subject. Plus its simplistic, negative and repetitive.
I’m confused by this. This can retail trading too. Grab all retail day traders, put them in a room, and run the simulation.
What an honor. And no, I’m not Nassim. Nassim wouldn’t hide behind a nickname. I do. :/ I’m insecure, paranoid, and I don’t have f*ck-you money (yet?). Edit: I am jaded as if instructed by life ambitions, deep at the core. I really am. I like your post. Call me out more, I’d like to learn about myself, sincerely.
But its says nothing about trading, it talks about people's reactions to success in trading. In addition to which, I had the idea that fund managers most of all in the world want to be about par with the majority of other fund managers. This is based on the premise that if one of them significantly out-performs his peers, he must have taken significantly greater risks to do so.
Did you not read the first 3 paragraphs? It highlights the fact that given a fair population size, with fair chances for everybody, with the same starting point, and same probabilities, you’ll have, as in that example, 313 traders/managers outperforming for 5 years based on pure luck... Don’t make it more complicated than it needs to be