you do not need more than 50% probability because the reward is not the same in all times because of randomness. randomness means there is no reason for movements or that all the movements are not same. technical analysis does not look for reasons. edit it is because of randomness that technical analysis works
you want to disuss reasonably or are you seeing genius in idiots like Naseem. you mean to say Soros and millions others are wasting their time and that only Naseem is a genius.
If you encompass all knowledge, then you can see, understand, predict everything with 100% precision. To us, it is incomplete knowledge. It is random, to us. The more you zoom out and add more time, the more signal you get. Apple daily chart tells me nothing. 99% noise. Apple yearly chart tells me something. 50% noise, 50% signal. Still, you cannot predict future from past where it matters, the tails. This is because of the problem of induction. You can observe 1,000 white swans but it doesn’t confirm that a black swan doesn’t exist.
Technical analysis: (noun) financial analysis that uses patterns in market data to identify trends and make predictions. Please block me. Here we have a guy that believes he saw people building a house under 3 seconds and that TA is not about patterns. Now THIS IS A TROLL, not me.