Whom stated that those profits was due to skill ? One person name, one person user name...who has stated their profits off that specific news (China cut meeting short) was attribute to skill ? I just want to be sure to know whom specifically you're stating as fact are saying such and not just an assumption that such was being stated for the purpose to argue. If you need help, I saw social media posts by a few traders that were already Short a few hours before the China news...then the news hit and they made more profits than they expected. Simply, the luck didn't become a variable until "after" they had reached their profit targets. Thus, the luck showed up after their expected profits when they were able to catch much more profits than expected. Also, I did not see anyone say they "predicted" that price drop or that they attributed it to skill. Therefore, I'm wondering about whom was it that you saw (that I didn't see) that attributed it to skill. Whom was it ? Obviously I'm stating that luck is involved but sometimes it doesn't show up until after the skill that got someone into a daytrade or long term hold. In fact, almost all of my long term holds...luck did show up long after I was already in the investments. wrbtrader
This is funny as hell. You know that the AAPL chart is heavily arbitraged against the futures contract on GLOBEX. This means that your little argument that the AAPL chart is "randomly constructed" applies to the index as well (pretty obvious). Actually, the index value is completely determined by the net effect of capital flows into and out of equities (globally) and fixed income instruments (global as well), cash and brokerage accounts, margin accounts, hedging activity, sector rotation of funds, and plenty of other inflow and outflow. It follows that if you can get some real good information on any of this stuff then you could very well stand to make some money exploiting that knowledge. These markets are so phucking big now that in order for them to serve their intended purpose (e.g. futures to hedge equity risk) it follows that liquidity will, at times, need to be violently removed. Traders should be thinking about which of these groups are in need of liquidity and position themselves accordingly.
I agree with your last point 100%. For a day trader such as myself, Apple’s chart yesterday would have indeed carried a precise intended message, which would have been interpreted based on thousands of past observations of historical data analyzed to determine what specific measures convey a reliable, valid forecast as to the direction in which price is most likely headed in the near future. I have not plotted the actual indicator(s) I use in that finding/selecting those measure(s) was an arduous, painstaking process—the results of which I am reluctant to make public for others to capitalize on freely. But the line I have superimposed on the image below roughly reflects where my actual measure(s) indicated probable reversals in the stock.
Charlatan, did anything in the data between 9:30am - 1:12pm indicate the drop at 1:13pm? Why didn't the data between 9:30am - 1:12pm carry the message about the impending drop. You're saying IT DID?? You are committing the problem of induction. You're being mislead/deceived/fooled. No TA tool in the world would've predicted this to occur.. why? Because then IT WOULDN'T HAVE OCCURRED! (Note: You can do your charting tricks in hindsight only; to make it appear predictable) Charlatan: a person falsely claiming to have a special knowledge or skill; a fraud.
Nothing is random to the being that has the ability to encompass all knowledge. Are you that being?? Glad to see someone is epistemically humble enough acknowledge that they “can’t do it”. Hi friend.
Been there, done that when his book first came out. And it is one of the reasons I said what I said. One of the reasons.