Are you guys saying that I am someone else? I’m still confused if he is referring to me or the guy he quoted originally.
I think that that person whether referring to me or the person he quoted is looking too deep into things. JUST KIDDING, you got meeeeeeee I’m NNT. (Just joking)... Anyways about your prior post predictability became easier after signal appeared on the chart, in this case, thru the deliverance of market moving news. But without it, it goes back to being constructed based on Randomness. Pce
I re-read this and forgot to mention, along with my prior post, that it also reeks with hindsight bias.
Of COURSE it reeks with hindsight bias, you dolt! But that hindsight analysis can read the future! If in the future, Trump tweets that he is implementing more tariffs on China products, would you long equities? No. History has told us now what happens when Trump tweets bad tariff stuff. Markets go down. Fast. and they trend down. Vice-versa. Where is the random after that fact? Your time is past, you who believe in random noise over a long time frame. The market is biased-up, with the occasional pullback on Trump trade war and the Fed.
You can visibly see the source of the signal in your example. But when there is no signal such as most days of the year, and in places like daily or intra day charts, you mistake randomness for signal. Never the less over a long enough time frame, signal emerges in the data.
Until a trade/tariff headline happens. That that obliterates everything on your charts. Like it did today! So you may have had a long signal form on the chart, it started to look like a bottom bounce for a long. But then 1:13PM happened. I am glad I was not long.
Which should remind people about the limits of inductive reasoning. But they point & blame and go back to the tools that originally failed them.
Globex had seen bullish spec interest all day up to the news. This means that when the news hit and took levels they had to pay up HARD to cut their exposure. This is obvious if you are watching the inter exchange arbitrage. Prior to the news the risk was skewed very much to the downside. The chart I posted a while back overlays a (proprietary) process that measures arbitrage between Chicago and New York.