My mother used to ‘read the tea leaves’ -she used the ‘patterns and forms’ she saw to ‘predict’ what future might bring — I bet her success rate was exactly that of TA https://www.allure.com/story/how-to-read-tea-leaves-tasseography
Volpri, you are so one eyed how intraday is such a superior way to trade and how agile one can be. But overlook the fact that fees, slippage, churn, energy, time employed managing the trades are eating you alive. Where I will concede intraday is possibly superior is in a highly automated situation on a professional level run by a team of; coders, traders, IT/computer technicians, supervisors etc. I doubt the guys who frequent the ES Journal have any form of professionalism other than talking big. I have most if them blocked due to the utter nonsense they constantly crap on about.
I'll bust a myth for you, when the market decides to fall off a cliff which happens once in a while every several years, it is not a black swan, intraday guys because they are surrounded by trees may not see it coming, but there is plenty ample warning signs. I've seen so many 'bear calls' from intraday traders, they appear to be the most clueless.
Human nature doesn't change, which is the reason why history tends to repeat itself. Therefore look to the past to determine how the future might evolve, and bet on the likely outcome. Don't bet too much though, in order to stay in the game.
Four, yes FOUR, drops of at least 10% since Jan 2018 in the NQ. In less than 2 years. =>10% drops after a tweet (black swan) are not considered falling off a cliff? If not, what is considered falling off a cliff that happens once in a while every several years? You talking the several year intervals before 2009?
Too many are so fixated on black swan, forget black swan, majority of these type of traders have negative statistical edge overall anyways. Black swan need not emerge, that should be the least of their concerns.
Thanks for your comment. I responded with a 2nd post but forgot to tag you, if you can refer to that and let me know your thoughts. Edit: I understand what you’re saying that “price movement is never random”. This is correct, in the literal sense. What I’m saying is more abstract, it’s about predicting the next state of the system. It’s about predicting the movement itself and it’s direction etc. anyways refer to my post on last page or whatever and you’ll see my expanded thought.
Far as I am concerned, the black swan is the Trump™. The manufacturing numbers from Tuesday? Par for the course. And the market recovered because of...Chopper talk! He talked it up again, far as I can tell. His trade talk was the black swan that caused the market to shoot back up (along with the new lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, yeah)