There is no such thing as luck. Chit happens good or bad. There is skill and there isn't. If there was a thing that actually existed called luck then which came first - for the person who is now skillful - the skill or the luck to become skilled? And round and round YOU go. I got off that ride long ago. Taleb guessed right in Oct'87, now can't keep from going around and around. Since then he is Taleb the celeb (with groupies) book author. I listen to traders not authors.
Well yes, in general you are right, taking all other factors out of consideration. But the longer the consolidation takes place, the greater the chance that probability is shifting to 50/50. Hence the picture might not have been the best example but you get the point.
Speedo, if you’re implying that I’m a theorist more than an actual trader then you’re wrong. I learned everything I’ve learned precisely because I am a trader.
Since the start of this thread, we’ve had a handful of commentators fixated on finding out who I am. Searching me on google, thinking I am other users and hiding behind this name, so on and so forth. I find it hilarious. If only such individuals spent this energy to disprove what I’ve posited........
Taleb is a trader, Dalio is a trader, Marty O Connell is a trader and all wrote books. Perhaps, you are just jealous.