A Lot More Directional

Discussion in 'Forex' started by oldtime, Dec 25, 2012.

  1. I'm a lot more directional for 2013 than I was in 2012

    Usually if something was moving against me, something else was moving for me

    Now I'm 100% short usd and eur against gbp and aud with no other strategy than to average down, add to winners and get back down to size at break even

    it's a rough way to go, everyday you live or die by aud and gbp

    jpy is too convoluted, and they are talking about cad too much

    so this is the path I have chosen
  2. I put the same position on over in my paper account, no trading, just guessing

    it's amazing how much money you can lose just by guessing wrong

    so now I am trying to bring it back up with some strategical trading

    so far, nothing very earth shattering, just adding to losers and closing out at break even

    But my real account is down much more than I am comfortable with

    I don't like this directional trading, I am use to making money every month
  3. like a lot of small retail traders, I got short usd in Dec 2012

    After a few weeks I had given up all hope of a profitable Dec.

    Then in the last 48 hours, I somehow turned profitable, due mainly to resting 20 pip stops to add to my long gbp.usd

    Dec 31 account hit all time new high for 2012, and I just took it and got flat

    Spent New Years Eve flat (and I am almost never flat) and just thought about it

    and it became obvious to me that all the big money was short and would soon cover on the fiscal cliff news

    so I just got long

    preferrred position for usd for me is against aud, gbp and cad. Eur and jpy has it's own deal going

    so I got long and that got 2013 off to a good start

    now I am short again at a very small size

    general idea is Ben and the fed can't keep doing what they are doing without putting pressure on the dollar

    but you never know. There is no law against inside trading in forex, and he has already shown he can prop up a bond market, and now a stock market, so who knows what kind of inside info big money is going to bet in 2013 if he is going to also prop up usd

    all the money I made in 2012 was by staying for the most part neutral some given currency and buying dips and selling rallies at extremes

    so this is a departure for me. Trade usd from the short side only, like I said, against aud, gbp and cad, but take a profit when it presents itself.

    I'll know by 6/31. If I am not profitable at that point, I will go back to doing what got me here.

    well, I gotta go

    apparently, I am already losing my ass in some long gbp.usd

    you sure I want to do this?

    man, I miss the good old days
  4. ok, that didn't last long

    I'm back to what got me here

    short eur.gbp
    short gbp.aud
    short gbp.cad
    long gbp.usd

    gbp is a good chopper

    now I gotta go back and find the girl I took to the dance, and explain to her, it was all just a misunderstanding
  5. JB3


    ^ Is that some type of edge?

    Are you trying those in pairs? Or are you entering thos 4 pairs at the same time?

    I've done both types of trading, the directional trade is definitely much more profitable.
  6. I hear ya, but this has been working for me now for a solid year now, I trade all the pairs independently and constantly add to winners and losers, and occasionally lighten up if one gets too heavy. When the whole account hits a predetermined profit target I close everything out, win lose or draw.

    otherwise it has just been a horrible day. broker likes it when I have those because there is a lot of trading.

    now I am long aud.usd
    short eur.usd
    long gbp.usd

    what a mess I have made of things, not reading the market well, too many fundamental ideas based on what this guy said and what that guy said. Maybe NFP will give me chance to get rebalanced.
  7. JB3


    I have a strategy that uses the natural correlation between certain pairs as well. But the volatility has just dried up in recent year, so that strategy hasn't worked out as well as I had liked. Obviously, I can still trade them by lowering the correlation, but if the volatility ever picks up...the dynamics will change...and the correlations will spike and be thrown off.

    I would be careful to base the validity of a strategy based on the last few years because the volatility is very low, reversion to mean has been performing well. But it will change again in time, and trending directional will be back, and the reversion to mean will not work.
  8. well, actualy, for me personally, all the money is made on the trend. The other stuff just keeps me alive. And offers some protection until I can get out of the wrong side of a trend. But otherwise I agree, directional would be better, but this is a better fit for me psychologically.

  9. ... dude, you had us thinking you blew up with that butt hurt thread about not being able to hit the side of a barn door.

  10. actually he was talked out of suicide at one point last year.. haha this vol against vol is something i'm willing to investigate.. obviously all major currencies can have relationships.. or at least some of them probably do i would guess... i'm sure the veterans of currency have just seen it.. but you can judge the trend of volatility against the trend of volatility of any instrument.. nothing can happen in a vacuum ya know
    #10     Jan 4, 2013