A look back, what do you think?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by int78, Aug 7, 2010.

  1. int78


    Brief introduction: I have browsed these forums from time to time but rarely post. I have traded live for a couple of years now with the majority of focus on intra-day crude oil futures (CL).

    Unfortunately, I do not have any significant contacts within the trading industry and hope there are a few experienced live and long-term profitable traders here that can share some thoughts.

    I guess a good place to start is a recent few months sample of CL day trades. Attached is a simple spreadsheet with all winning and losing trades over a ~2.5 month sample (I apologize if its a bit crude the original purpose was not for this post). Commissions are included in the net profit/loss amounts and the vast majority of trades were 1-lots. Hard stops were almost always -20 to -25 ticks and stops were moved to par manually depending on how the scenario played out. The highlighted trades in the loss columns were stops at par resulting in a net loss of commissions. The highlighted trades in the profit columns are just the largest winners.

    Before this comes across as some sort of a brag let me say that I have yet to achieve consistent long-term profitability and following this 2.5 month run I tinkered with my methods and my trading hit another rough streak.

    From many trading books I`ve read and other internet related sources of information I had convinced myself that these trading results were `decent` but definitely sub-optimal. Specifically, I believed the Avg Win must be at least 2:1. Also, when I reviewed all the trades there were many times where the premise played out had my stop just been a little wider. So instead of just continuing to do what was working and adding size as the account grew my type-A, perfectionist personality got the best of me and widened my stops, fiddled with averaging into positions etc. The end result was a complete loss of sync.

    Any thoughts you might have are most welcome but I hope you can address the following questions as well:

    - Thoughts on the stats of this 2.5 month sample? Anything stand out that should be improved?

    - Might I be better off keeping my stops in the -20 to -25 tick range and just accepting I will be shook out of a few that might end up working out instead of trying to widen the entry scale?

    Thank you for your help~
  2. int78


    here is the spreadsheet