a little market history

Discussion in 'Trading' started by blackguard, Nov 28, 2003.

  1. day after Thanksgiving has the highest chance of being a positive (green) day.

    December is the most bulli$h month for the stock market.

    let's see what happens this year....

    Just a thought.
  2. well,what do you know it worked!?! 19/21 years the Naz has been green average gain is .7%.

    December: most bulli$h month for stocks. I've been in the Game since '93 and have yet 2 c a negative December. Let's see what happens....

    Just a thought.
  3. You have been in the game since 93 and you have yet to 2 c a negative december? Hmmm maybe you can look back as far as lets say......................last year dec 2002! Least year the Nasdaq was down 10% for the month of Dec. How did you miss this?
  4. Just to give you a bit more of history, the NAZ for the month of Dec was down in 1995, 1996,1997,2000, and 2002. HMMM that seems like alot more than "never been down" in the "whole" time you have been in the game since 93. Next time at least check out the facts before you post something like this.
  5. lol.

    looks like someone was WAY off with this thread.

    thanks for the info.
  6. Lets not jump the gun. He said "he" has yet to see a negative Dec. so he may be referring to his own account. What is the track record for December overall?
  7. In another thread, I posted a chart of year 1998,

    The key element is that November 1998 blast to the high of that year (made in Jul-Aug 1998) thus catching most shorts that year by surprise and eventually resolved to the upside :)

    This year we have a weakening "struggle" to climb to a new high of the year so far. So the best case that blasting to previous year high in Nov did not happen ...

    Since 1990 except this year, S&P never made a bottom in March then going almost straight up for the rest of the year.

    The closest ones are

    1999 with Jan - Feb bottom and huge selloff in Jul-Oct
    1997 with Apr bottom and hugh selloff in Oct

    We do not have any sell off at all in mid year ...

    p.s. the attached file is ES of this year so far comparing to 1998
  8. 1999 never had a huge selloff. It was a trading range at worst until it blasted off around Halloween.

    Just a thought.
  9. I have been in the game since '93.

    I never checked the actual numbers when I made my post, but those slightly down months can be construed as a trading range at worst. What I mean is that December has never seen a huge selloff.

    Just a thought.
  10. Nasdaq was down around 9.8% for the month of Decemeber in 2002 you don't consider that a huge selloff? Nasdaq was down 5% for the month of Dec in 2000 as well. Now yes these were bear market years but they were still pretty big down months % wise. Just wondering what market you have been watching the last 3 years....but this year I would be shocked to see a big down month, but you never know.
    #10     Nov 30, 2003