I have a minority opinion on this. With three types of trends any of which that could be in effect for part of the market's open period and also the consideration of what could be going on in the remaining open time period, the idea of using your (this) assessment (knowing with relative certainty) in any given instant of time to carry on an effort over time won't stand up over trading open market periods. The alternative to seeking an edge is to seek a comprehensive approach to cover market conditions. I believe you start with basic money making and grow capital. As you grow capital more successfully (higher money velocity over time), you expand the time you spend in the market to cover more and more market conditions. There is no edge orientation to this as I see it. When you are in the market,the risk to be in is very very low. There is no concept of a target for instance. The concept is to only do what you know how to do. As you understand more you expand your time in the market making money.
Thanks to all the posters for sharing their insights. I do not expect to be able to just buy into a method that works overnight. But I guess I need to start looking for one that works for me. Because eventually the casinos will tire of me, or me of them. And my bankroll will outgrow casino games. I love people that say casinos can't be beaten. It's that mentality that allows me to get away with it. Even from supposed casino professionals. Jack, Beat the Dealer still works, even today. And the explosion of legal gambling into areas other than Vegas and Atlantic City has helped. Problem is, the casino's surveillance assets have grown exponentially. I did get a laugh thinking about you and your friends sitting at the table openly discussing the count and whatnot. The days of silver dollars and single deck games truly made Vegas in the 1960's a candy store. Thorpe's still around. He made gazillions off his hedge fund and has a fab house somewhere around Newport Beach. Traveler