6 20 Wrap-Up Daily Dope VA-HL 648.2 645.2 PD-HL 651.4 644 ON-HL 45.2 42.4 OR-HL 44.1 43.8 OR-SB 45.6 42.3 2.5-SB 653.9 641.5 SR1-BS 649.7 642.1 SR2-BS 654.3 639.3 IB-HL 46.1 42.7 DDF 44.7 MA 635.3 Overnight it went as high as 45.20 and as low as 42.40. by opening we were looking at low 43s. Gap we looked to be opening around low to mid 43s so we were looking for a gap fade to the upside. it worked and within minutes we were passing the overnight highs (45.20). MP and S/R Stuff the ER2 opened below VAL and below PDL by 1-tick. there wasn't much business below 44.90 on friday, so if the gap fade worked (and it did) we should be retesting that area for additional business. ugh, got tied up with work most the night tonight. gonna do an abreviated wrap-up. IB couldn't contain either price extreme, but we closed between the middle and end of the range. so there was RE in both directions, but very little follow-through. DVA finished pretty close to how it began. the DPOC was often a reliable area of change. the DDF and OR-SB marks were good for several trades (selling the OR-S mark at 45.6 and buying the OR-B at 42.3). we finished with overlapping VA and small range. Summary there were some good trades based off of a few different reference points, but overall it was a risky day. the range was fairly tight, conviction was low, and even the REs were pretty wimpy. it took some agile trading to stay in it today and on the right side. there was definitely plenty of up-down going on. it just seemed like we couldn't ever really get anything going. the YM looked better as far as examples today (sell VAH, buy DVAH, filled a ton of intraday singles, etc). oh, well. next! Points of Interest 1. overlapping VAs 2. Gap filled 3. OGF/C worked 4. OR-B / ON-L / SR1-B grouping 5. DDF / OR-H / PDL / OR-L / PP grouping Looking Ahead ... Here's the numbers for the 21st: VA-HL 645.7 643.7 POC 644.1 PD-HL 646.7 642 2.5-SB 649.2 639.5 PP 644.2 SR1-BS 646.4 641.5 SR2-BS 649.0 639.4 MA 643.4 take care and gtty - omni BTW: i included a shot of the MP in cummulative periods from B through I. i'll try to get the rest posted later. the other pics for the 20th are in links from my previous post.
Great Post Omini!!! I admire your dedication. Thanks for your post about how you got your info on MP. I have read all of those references except for Peter Steidlmyer's book. I also use Market Profile reference points (Market Structure) along with pivots to trade off of. In fact, I have been using guy's tools. For the pre-market preparation do you look at the AB MP charts using the merge function to produce an Overlay Demand Curve? As you know, Don Jones of Cisco-Futures starts his analysis of the Market Condition this way, but mainly searches for markets to trade only if they are Balanced or "Bracketed" to form a Normal Distribution. Theses are usually 5 day overlays for day trading. As you know, the reasoning behind this is that the market is ripe for trends and becoming "Unbalanced" by the "Other timeframe traders". These formations can be infrequent, especially if you just trade one market. However, a more frequent Overlay Demand Curve pattern that I have observed is the "B" shaped pattern ( or double distribution). I recently read a good article in May's Active Trader magazine on Market Profile. In this article it discusses the 4 phases of the market which eventually ends up in a Normal Distribution. The "B" and "P" pattern is one of the four phases. Although the author who wrote it was a reporter, I believe she was using Peter's work on MP since Dalton and Jones don't mention this as a trade setup. Anyway, what I found useful in this article was the observation that the "B" pattern or double distribution MP (or what would typically be a range bound market) will eventually fill the gaps to form a single distribution. I applied this observation yesterday on the market I trade, the YM. Prior to the market open I saw that the three day ODC showed the "B" pattern. During the trading session, the YM was trading practically all day in a tight range. However, I noticed that the TPO's were in the lower part of the "B". So I waited for some volatility and the price to reach the previous day's POC. Sure enough, the market filled the double distribution which correlated with filling the gap produced that morning. I'm wondering if these "B" type pattern will be useful in nongap days? I realize that you are using MP in a peripheral manner but I just wanted your thoughts on this observation in the market you trade in.
thx OC I really appreciate the encouragement and positive feedback I have been receiving. good stuff, eh? The stuff works. And guy rocks! BTW: i've mentioned it a few times in various posts, but i've started giving some attention to the DDF (which i first discovered through some of Lefty's posts). i haven't looked at if for other instruments, but it's been pretty sticky in the AB. I have not but will begin looking at it. Honestly, I just recently figured out how to merge days together *blushes* I think you brought up a couple of key points. First, while trading a single market can afford a trader the luxury of becoming intimately familiar with a particular trading instrument, it can also limit his trading success. Since I still focus on the AB, there have been days when I kept a peripheral eye on the ES, YM, NQ, or ZB and saw classic MP based price behavior. Meanwhile, the AB might not be producing much that day. Eventually, I want to broaden my application of my toolset to other instruments. Lately, the YM seems to be very responsive to MP structure. Secondly, even using two days of MP data, itâs easy to become myopically successful. In other words, you can take a short-sighted approach to applying an MP structure and still do very well. However, if you incorporate a bit more data, it seems you can further enhance your probabilities of success. thx for pointing out the article (thereâs also an article in the May 2005 TAS&C on MP by Donald Jones; TAS&C has several MP-related and Jones-authored articles available for download). I havenât read the article yet, but I found it on www.activetradermag.com and saw that Robin Mesch was the author. As far as I understand, she is actually a trader. You can listen to her (and follow along with a PPT presentation) in a 80min seminar at: http://wzap.zapfutures.com/robin/seminar.htm She also wrote about MP in: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...f=sr_1_8/103-6912069-8613434?v=glance&s=books You can see what she writes about in the TOC (sheâs in chapter five): http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/157...8613434?_encoding=UTF8&p=S00F&j=0#reader-page and you can get some more info on her at: http://www.robinmesch.com/index.cfm From the seminar, I remember (itâs been a while) her referring to the B / P patterns and the value she found in overlaying multiple days. Iâll definitely take a closer look at her material and overlaying days. that is a very nice B pattern. here's a link to a shot of what i think you were looking at: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-20/ym620_vs_3ODC.png and here is a link for an image the 3-ODC with today's action: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-20/ym620_vs_3ODC1.png so, if i am doing this right, this would be the 3-ODC for tomorrow: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-21/ym621_3ODC_mp.png I didnât see that at the time. Instead I was looking at the 17th as a possible Island day; if it didnât trade up at least into the 17thâs range (preferably into its VA), I was looking for a break on the 21st. As it turned out it traded all the way through the 17thâs VA. As for applying B patterns to non-gapping days â short answer is I donât know . however, it is definitely an interesting idea. Iâd be curious to see how closing placement affected filling in the B as well. In other words, say it closes in the upper quadrant near HOD and doesnât form much of a gap for the next day. If it tries to fill in the B, that could be some serious action on a break. the AB is funny. It may just be because I trade it that I feel this way, but I actually think it is difficult to trade the AB using MP. The main reason I stick with the AB is because itâs what I started with in trading minis (which was just about 1yr ago; yes, Iâm still very green â which is ironic considering the color of my account at times )While itâs not thinly traded, itâs not ES as far as liquidity either . I havenât looked at its tendencies to fill Bâs but will start looking for the formations now and historically. hope i've sufficiently addressed your questions / comments. if not, please ask - i'm sometimes a bit thick. take care and gtty - omni BTW: i recently taught my 5yo son how to play mancala. he took losing pretty tough the first few days. then we got to where we would usually tie or the winner would win by just a couple of stones. tonight he beat me 30-18 and 31-17. i'm going to change his name to Market.
Omni, I'm trying to follow your abbreviations. 1) Does AB refer to the Russell 2000 Futures contract ? 2) What does 3-ODC stand for ? 3) What does OGF/C stand for ? 4) What does DDF stand for ? (Directional Day Filter ?) 5) What does PD stand for ? 6) What does SB stand for ? 7) What does BS stand for ? Thx
yes, AB and ER2 refer to the Russell 2000 e-mini contract. that is for the Overlay Demand Curve. The number is how many days of Overlay. that is my Opening Gap Fade / Continuation setup. bingo Previous Day Sell / Buy and Buy / Sell. So if I use OR-S, Iâm referring to an Opening Range Selling setup. whether or not it is a B or an S depends on trade through. If price canât do much with a particular level, reverse; if it can, look for continuance and trade in that direction. Again, this is what I look for, so I donât recommend anyone else do the same thing. Iâm just clarifying (hopefully) the terms I use. Hope this helps. Take care and gtty â omni
6 21 Wrap-Up I could almost just say ditto yesterdayâs action and call it a day. but that would be lazy. And it wouldnât be completely accurate. Overnight if I recall, the ON-H was 45.20 â until 09:12. it popped from 44.6 to 46.0 and was back down to 44.7 by 09:15. so, the overnight bounds were 46.0 and 43.0. Hmm, on the 20th it was 45.2 and 42.4. Surely we wonât be restricted to the same range we saw on the 20th? Right. Gap well, given that little pop to 46.0, I was perplexed how to play the gap. Since we closed at 45.0 on the 20th and looked to be opening a bit below that mark, I was inclined to go long at open. However, with the recent trip to 46.0 it could be indicative of impending selling. Well, as usual, following OGF worked. Actually, both ways worked â only selling the open only produced about 5-ticks of opportunity. I shorted the open and got stopped out after I held it too long and it reversed on me. Had I taken the OGF long, I would have only had to endure about 5-ticks heat and been nicely positioned for the move up to 46.3 before reversing into a gap continuation (OGC). MP and S/R Stuff okay, there really was very little separating yesterdayâs profile from today. I laughed as the profile formed. Could it really end up looking almost EXACTLY like yesterday? Same range, same boundaries, same shape, same everything? Of course, this Gee-whiz! awe-based mentality often hinders my progress. I have yet to be numbed by the marketâs behavior and its tendencies. It still impresses me when it goes a certain way or doesnât do a certain thing. I still have to remind myself that the market doesnât care â not about my goals, my targets, my stops, my P/L, my perceptions, my expectations, nothing. But I digress ⦠so we had overlapping profiles, but todayâs profile was a bit lower (both VAH and VAL) than yesterdayâs VA. POC was almost exactly the same. However, today we closed at VAH versus yesterdayâs close 5-ticks below its VAL. Several reference areas again provided profitable trading opportunities. Selling the daily R1 (frontrunning a couple of ticks) and buying the daily S1 (again, frontrunning) both paid off. Selling yesterdayâs HOD and buying its LOD paid off. The OR-S play worked and so did the OR-B (though it did incur up to 9-ticks of heat). Selling IB-H and buying IB-L was successful. Same goes for buying DVAL and selling DVAH (at various times in the day). The DDF pivot (thx Lefty ) again exerted a particular stickiness. And the ON-H/L served as decent targets (both were hit and traded through, but not completely blown away). Iâd usually detail more setups and scenarios here, but Iâm pretty beat right now. here's today's ER2 MP chart (with the 20th and 17th also): http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-21/ab621_3day_mp.png here is the 21st with splits: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-21/ab621_3day_mp1.png 5min segments: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-21/ab621_mp_5min_segs.png 3-ODC for tomorrow: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-21/ab621_3ODC.png Summary uh, ditto the 20th? No seriously, though still bound by a relatively small range, today provided ample profitable trades for the ER2. most of the trades were low-risk with a decent amount of reward â especially given the narrow range. Using S/R levels, gaps, opening range, and PDH/L within a MP structure made a potentially choppy (i.e. costly) day tradable. Points of Interest Déjà vu? Not sure which is more interesting â that todayâs MP nearly matched yesterdayâs MP or that despite that fact I couldnât stay on the right side of the market. Anyway, besides that here are points that stuck out to me: 1. we closed at VAH in upper quadrant â whereas we closed yesterday in below VAL in lower quadrant. 2. 3-ODC now looks very balanced, with two healthy tails, and we are currently at about POC for the 3-days. 3. volume is just ugly right now â I know itâs summer and all that, but jeesh. Notes on Me In the end, I was disappointed but accepting. Of course I wanted a better day. I always do. No matter how good or bad, I want to trade better. However, I know I am still new to this game and have come to realize I can only trade as well as I can trade at any given moment. I hope that doesnât sound like a defeatist mentality, because it really isnât â in fact, it is an empowering concept. Itâs empowering because it reminds me that while I can always make a better trade next time, I can do nothing about any past trade. I had my chance and I did what I could at that time. I can certainly take this knowledge forward into the next trade. Will next time be different? Thatâs up to me and the market. I canât control the market, so I have to maintain and improve my side. I really feel very fortunate to be where I am. Iâm a year into this, Iâve never done it full time, I havenât wiped out my account, I didnât trade every day, week, or even month over the last year, and I found a toolset that will complement my trading personality. I nearly feel too fortunate â I have the tools I know work and that I can use, I just have to let them work for me and stop letting myself work against them. Take care and gtty â omni BTW: here are rough numbers for tomorrow: VA-HL 645.5 643.5 PD-HL 646.4 641.8 2.5-SB 648.9 639.3 SR1-BS 647.5 642.7 SR2-BS 649.2 640.0 MA 643.9
i've been following the thread at: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=50472&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 and find it a fascinating example of ol' Ed Seykota's view of the market and other stuff: Everybody Gets What They Want in the thread mksummny has drawn a lot of attention. he has posted blotter screenshots and states he had only a handful of losing days last year, averaged between 3k-5k, and this year looks to be as good if not better than 2004. okay, now the fun begins. his statements have drawn all kinds of reactions. believers, naysayers, congrats, shouts of BS, and so forth. mk has become a market on ET - everybody gets what they want from him. some people read his efforts and take inspiration. some take from him a competitive challenge. some take a con-artist. some take a an unskilled tick-f'er. some take discouragement for why they can't duplicate or surpass his results. meanwhile, like the market, mk does what he does. like the market, he gives people data as data and they add to it what they want. others perceptions, positive or negative, do not influence the mk-market. anyway, it continues to be an interesting thread. mk has been very open about how he trades, what he trades, and so forth. i think some traders might look at his methods as an easy road to success. if i recall, he has spent 8yrs getting to this point and from his description of his methods, easy isn't the word i would use to describe what he does. but that's because he has different trading style / personality / experience than i do. if you haven't checked it out, take a few minutes and give it a glance. take care and gtty - omni BTW: i'm not judging anyone's perception of mk's statements, so none of my above characterizations have any negative or judgemental slant. i'm all for everything the thread has brought out so far - encouragement, skepticism, competition, and so forth. i'm not in favor of slamming anyone for their beliefs or contributions.
6 22 Wrap-Up there are always profitable trades and points to be had, but lately it seems a bit difficult for someone to buy a close or open and let it ride all day. Dunno, it just seems like the market (at least the ER2) can do whatever it wants through the day and finish pretty close to where it all began. Obviously, since it has climbed from 568 in early May to 650 by mid June, there has been some change in price from day to day also, i want to revise my journal entry format, so i'll be trying out some different things for it this weekend ... just an fyi Overnight made it up to within 2-ticks of the 2.5-SB mark. The ON-L was 44.90. this gave us a good working idea of where some bounds might be for the day. Gap through the overnight, we gapped up 3-points, but by opening that was down to 1-point. Look to fade but be cognizant of an effort to fill the overnight prints. MP, S/R, and other Reference Points some chartage ⦠3-day MP: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-22/ab622_3day_mp.png today with splits: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-22/ab622_mp_splits.png 3ODC for tomorrow: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-22/ab622_3ODC.png 3ODC vs todayâs MP http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-22/ab622_3ODC_close.png 5ODC: http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-22/ab622_5ODC.png it did open and fade the gap. It was a little less than a point (I think max of 6-ticks) and BAM! off we went towards ⦠the overnight high. We came within 2-ticks of touching it. Close enough, especially if you frontrun by a tick or two. Once we got there what to do, what to do? Thatâs right sell off. And that it did. By 10am we were ⦠at the overnight low. Well, as for MP structure, yes, the IB contained one of the daily extremes (the high). We opened a bit above yesterdayâs high and therefore above VAH. That means buying yesterdayâs VAH is a viable trade. Thing is, with it dropping so far into yesterdayâs range and VA, weâre basically trading in value â even though we didnât open in it. That meant that selling the VAH (45.4) appeared to be a viable option. A more conservative trade was letting the IB form and have a better idea which way the wind was blowing. RE looked like a good barometer of the first major trade. Otherwise, itâs rotations. Well, RE happened and pretty heavily. It dropped from the IB-L of 44.6 down to 41.3 (a few ticks below PDL, filling in the tail from yesterdayâs IB). Not much business below 42.20 though, so it seemed a good probability weâd be moving back up before we heading further South. And we did head North â right up to VAL. When that pooped out, selling the VAL looked reasonable. Back down we went. We didnât actually stop at or before we got to VAL, so that tells me itâs not impenetrable. If rotational lows start getting higher, we might be able to push through and finish filling in singles in D-period, maybe even singles in B-period. Things did start working back up, we made it a little past VAH, took a trip down to PDL, and started heading up again â until we got to 44.40. Other than being the last D-period single filled and 1-tick above what was shaping up to be POC, Iâm not sure how 44.40 came into such power to keep trade through at bay for as long as it did. It seemed inevitable that we would go through it, but the market just couldnât pull it off for what seemed like an eternity. Uh, cuz I was long and had 47.8 (a couple ticks under the 17thâs VAH) in my sights. Well, I finally bowed out and called it a day at 44.0. obviously, I missed the continuation of the move I got in on, but I probably would have got stopped out had I left it alone. I got in at 42.50 (DVAL) and after some pain of watching my profits erode from 44.3, I was set on keeping at least 5-ticks on this freakin trade. Thatâs probably exactly what I would have kept AND I would have still missed the rest of the up move. Iâll take my 1.5-point trade and be happy. Summary I essentially scratched the day. My wins were bigger than my losses , but my losses outnumbered my wins I kept from taking on much heat, but I still have a ways to go on favorable trade location. More than once my hesitation put me deeper into a trade than was necessary. When I do that my stops are more likely to get hit (and they did). I just have to reach the point where missing profitable trades is more painful than taking small losses. One day at a time, man, one day at a time ⦠Points of Interest 1. 644.40 was a very stubborn barrier for a while â both K- and L-period tried to trade through it, but no go. It did happen, but not until M-period. 2. outside day â todayâs range contained yesterdayâs range and todayâs VA contained yesterdayâs VA 3. almost filled in tail in B-period 4. 2.5-S worked 5. OR-S worked Take care and gtty â omni BTW: my son scorched me today 35-13 and 37-11 in mancala. i eventually narrowed my loss to 28-20 and even won a game or two, but i'm not teaching that boy anything else. it's funny because i think i might be able to see a difference in how he would trade compared to me. he is a master at building these setups that allow him to pull 1-3 stones on several consecutive moves. i try to move all my stones to his side and stick him with them. i've created a scalper :eek:
here's today's dope: VA-HL 645.9 642.5 PD-HL 648.7 641.3 ON-HL 647.5 644.6 OR-HL 645.9 644.8 OR-SB 647.4 643.3 2.5-SB 651.2 638.8 SR1-BS 649.9 642.3 SR2-BS 653.0 638.0 IB-HL DDF 45.9 44.1 MA 645 Notes: DDF = 44.9 i only got off one trade, a short from VAH at 45.70. i got out at 44.40 without reversing. but not too bad for 2.5-min. lucky me, i have a training session for work today, so i'll be out of the market i'll have to catch up later. take care and gtty - omni BTW: i just scalped another 5-ticks from VAH (45.7 to 45.2). i know it is going lower but i gotta go. this is the price i pay for letting someone else determine my hours.
6 23 Wrap-up after several days of consolidation the ER2 (and others) broke today. If you were short, it was surf and turf. If you were long, it was time to start washing dishes Some chartage for the 23rd (even though I mistakenly named some of the files with 622 in the filename): 3ODC vs todayâs MP http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab622_mp_3ODC_vs_623.png 5ODC vs todayâs MP http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab622_mp_5ODC_vs_623.png todayâs MP http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp.png 10 day ODC http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp_10ODC.png 30 day ODC http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp_30ODC.png 3ODC http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp_3ODC.png 3ODC after adding todayâs MP http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp_3ODC_with_623.png 5ODC http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp_5ODC.png 5ODC after adding todayâs MP http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp_5ODC_with_623.png todayâs MP with splits http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-06-23/ab623_mp_splits.png Overnight up to 47.5 and down to 44.6 near opening. These will serve as preliminary bounds / targets. Gap The ER2 gapped down better than a point, so I was looking for a long and about a point to exit. Also weighing in about a point away from opening was VAH. Since we opened in VA, look for VAH as a short opportunity. The gap worked for almost exactly a point and took us exactly to VAH. I couldnât get filled on the OGF (missed by 2-ticks) and was determined not to chase it. If I couldnât get favorable trade location I would have to wait for the next bus. MP, S/R, and other Reference Points The next bus showed up for me at VAH so I got short. I wanted to see how it reacted to POC, but I was on a tight timeline. I knew my time in the market today was going to be limited due to a training class I was attending for my âotherâ work. I got out a few ticks shy of POC and didnât reverse. I did take another VAH short, but only for 5-ticks. If we couldnât retest and successfully trade through VAH, I would be staying short. I simply had to go and had to take what I could get. My next targets were: 1. OR-B â (43.3) 2. VAL / S1 â (42.4; 42.5 and 42.3, respectively) 3. PDL (41.3) 4. Weekly PP (40.9) I honestly didnât look much past that Weekly PP number. I figured 40 would continue being a major psychological barrier even with the attempts (41.3 and 41.8 best efforts) over the last couple of days. The point of curiosity for me was how yesterdayâs outside day concluding three days of range compression would impact today. New highs or new lows? We did bounce around, retesting VAH and then the 10:00 turnaround took us down to â OR-B. A long around 43.5 would have brought about 4-ticks heat max (depending on when you took the 43.5 position). Holding the position, look for: 1. VAH (45.9) 2. OR-S (47.4) 3. ON-H (47.5) 4. PDL (48.7) Well, we filled the overnight gap and headed South again. The DDF seemed pretty sticky for quite a while (of course, that was a pretty decent psych area of 45). Then BAM! The bottom appeared to have fallen out. We saw sub-40s and then saw the 41.5 area double tested as a new area of resistance. Pretty cool. Then down, down, down. Past Weekly PP, then past 2.5-B, past S2, down, down, down, it kept falling. Plop, it landed around 35 â a full 10-points away from our sticky point and 5-points under the 40 barrier. Along the way, we formed tons of singles too. Good times. Summary I barely caught any of todayâs action (less than 20% of todayâs range) and there was action all around. I may be grateful for that fact â I have seen trends blow me out before. I feel I was a bit better prepared for this collapse, but you never know until you know. Tomorrow is another day and new buses are continually arriving and departing. Points of Interest 1. VA = Outside Day; Range = Overlapping, but not Outside day 2. Lots of singles â singles are like gaps and overnights in that they desire to be filled 3. most trades over the last 10-days have happened between 41.80 and 46.20 (and to a lesser extent, 47.20) 4. closed at LOD take care and gtty â omni