I would like to begin a thread, discussing what I hope most here understand to be the merits of a "successful" long-term trading strategy. My <b>Ultimate Goal</b> has been to produce compounding systems that are the real deal - designed to perform for decades without breakdown while sporting an outstanding calmar ratio (CAGR*/DD**). If you are a "newbie" or only moderately involved with trading perhaps this will be a beneficial experience. In no way am I at the same level as many of the "Elite" traders. In fact what I do is relatively simple, so I hope many will enjoy the dialogue. Of course, many of you will see this as a direct opportunity to gather a following to then sell my commercial products and services. Per ET rules <b>NO RE-DIRECTION LINKS WILL BE PROVIDED IN MY POSTS</b>. Of course, others can look back through my old threads to not only see if I have indeed improved while a 2+ year member at ET, they may run across some linking info...but that does not preclude my present efforts. <b>I have contacted moderators in advance.</b> -- so no sense hitting the complaint button. <b>My profile contains enough info about me and my trading.</b> If things go well in the next 6 months, I may tailor services to become an EliteTrader.com advertiser <i>- if I choose.</i> But, I will provide charts and graphs (without link/name) as time evolves to show my good/bad performance. Meanwhile, I will try and provide the occasional covered call trade set-up or my futures and ETF system bias. Again, the thrust of this thread is to weed out the chatter -- if a trading "system" cannot perform for 5-20+ years, beat the market AND contain a plus-size compound APR, it will only attract high-risk capital (huge annual gains are limited by time and scalability, most high-gain hedge funds blow up). These patently can never grow to become that substantial. With the right growth approach and vehicle, can the "ultimate goal" be reached? At least the possibility of taking a few thousand in multi-millions is a lofty enough goal. Most have deemed this to be an <i>impossible</i> task. I strongly disagree. <b>Welcome All, and <i>I hope you join in on the discussion!</i></b> *Compound Annual Growth Rate **Maximum Drawdown
Nah it's easy, find youself a stock like EXBX (trading at $0.09) buy up 50k shares for $4500 and sell when it hits $25 in a few years = done.
HA-HA!! However post-Madoff (not that I consider this) investors are more conscientious and diligent, right?!? It seems our government administrators have no problemo selling their and Wall Street's wares to the unsuspecting public (but don't get me started). So, my take is that Zentrickster feels long-term investments should be left to mutual funds and that high-growth strategies can only be done in a small account for a short while??
I am sure this <i>can</i> be done as easily - but not everyone has the (legal) "inside scoop" or privileged information to take a penny stock into the millions. But thank you for the stock tip. No this is just the working grunts approach - a lot of sweat, tears and hard work! paysense
OK. Let's start this off with <i>who knows what about fund returns.</i> I grant you that I do not know much of the details, but I do know the basic categories and general approximate results. Try and list CAGR or compound annual growth rate and please cite/post source/link. <BR>⢠Institutional investors include mutual funds, hedge funds and others. <BR>⢠Track records can be measured by 3, 5, 10 and 20 year results. <BR>⢠You have current and past fund results. Additional questions: What is that historical market average? If it the goal of most fund managers to "beat the market" what percent (institutional investors) actually outperform? Thanks in advance.
<b>OK</b> So, thus far none have participated in helping to answer these items. I will venture forward in one area. I would *guess* that at least 97% of all traders (retail and institutional) are unprofitable to date. If you just take institutional investors the number may be 95%. Any thoughts or knowledge on this? FYI, my past threads are listed below along with view counts. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=94764 Managing Funds for a Living 64065 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=96547 Naked Index Calls = $$$$ 5880 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=147395 Let's Take a Test Drive by Pay$ense 6281 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=156415 SO EASY a Caveman Could Do It!!! 5721
- contrast that with this poll showing the ratio about 50/50 with ET'ers. Are You a Profitable Trader? Taking into consideration ALL of my losses, since I began trading I am sitting on a small or insignificant loss. 13 20.63% Taking into consideration ALL of my losses, since I began trading I am sitting on a significant or hefty loss. 14 22.22% Taking into consideration ALL of my losses, since I began trading I am sitting on a small or tidy profit. 14 22.22% Taking into consideration ALL of my losses, since I began trading I am sitting on a substantial or hefty profit. 22 34.92% Total: 63 votes 100% http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=174078
Regarding the percentage of profitable traders, I think the data may be skewed or misleading. Consider the following circumstance: Joe Blow, fresh off of a big run at the roulette table, opens a trading account and deposits his $25,000. Within x amount of time, Joe Blow (the gambler that he is), proceeds to blow out his account, or very close to it. Should Joe Blow be considered a failed trader? Yes, I suppose. So the question then becomes, what constitutes a trader? As we all know, many traders are actually just gambling addicts in disguise, so it's no wonder so many accounts get blown. Personally, I think the 90%-99% of traders fail statistics to not mean very much.