I was rushing around the apt the other day and just barely caught a glimpse of Bloomberg TV's scrawl at the bottom, there it said the number of Chinese billionaires had grown to 108 vs 15 last year..... I continued along on my way and then stopped in my tracks. It was a heads up moment for me on China and I sold my EJ hldgs. which deals in China real estate. In 2005 there was great excitement because the number of billionaires in China had tripled! to 10.... Sometimes one benign line or fact becomes the linchpin fort recognizing when the gravy train is going to stop.... The drumbeat on China has been everything will hold to the Olympics.... maybe that's true of stocks but their core growth & wealth creation cannot continue at this rate. The very core of all this wealth... their real estate, has got to turn over. China's economic growth is largely driven by construction and manufacturing, rather than by science and technology, seven of China's 10 richest people are mainly or partly in the real estate business.... ~stoney
Completely agree. The smart people in Shangahi have already started selling their properties. Those who wait for the Olympics or the WF in Shanghai in 2010 will be far too late. The realtors are in a frenzy right now cold calling home owners and that might be a sign that the top is near. Keep in mind that while occupancy rates have risen from about 35% 3-4 years ago to about 60% today 40% of the new units built in the last decade in Shanghai are still unoccupied with more coming online every day. These are not cheap units most going for $200K+ Where is the average Chinese that makes a couple of $K each YEAR going to come up with the monthly on that let alone the 40% down (just raised from 30% down mandated by Central gov).
Got to say Stoney - you have some of the greatest insights about the market. Thanks for another good one.
Read that same story last night, just like 1999-2000. If that story is not a sign I dont know what is. They said most of the wealth is from the rise in shares of the companies that trade on the Shanghai market and that much of the wealth came from Real Estate.
You guys do realize that exports account for nearly half Chinas' GDP. Whats the real driving force behind Chinas boom? A hot real estate / manufacturing sector? Or foreign demand?
Great thread Stoney. If I remember correctly, the #1 guy on the Chinese billionaire list from last year dropped to #10 because his wealth "ONLY" increased by 50%!!!! 50% on billions....and the guy gets overtaken by 9 other people!!! :eek:
200 apartments sold for $500K each has 3000 people to fight for them. i spent 2x more in china than i spent in usa.