Point well taken. I suppose my only counter is that obviously none of us know what the future has in store, but there are way too many real downside risks to ignore, while on the upside all we have is optimism - and this market optimism will only fuel downside momentum when everyone gets caught with their pants down and runs for the exit.
Interesting thing to mention here is that many economists say (based on their models) that the US economy is only feeling the real effects of 3% worth of rate hikes, or a 4% int rate (3% in hikes from a low rate of 1%). This means the economy hasn't felt the other ~1.5%... asia and europe will be interesting to watch. many say that the world won't react negatively to a us slowdown due to globalization. I (based on the distinguished research of others) think that globalization will worsen the effect on other economies. Look at the relationship between the US and China/Japan. US slowdown leads to Asia slowdown, which leads to Latin america slowdown (raw materials exports to Asia). Europe will be interesting to watch. They've already had minor meltdowns (Iceland, Hungary, etc) that are supposedly indicative of the major weaknesses in their system. A US slowdown would expose these weaknesses I'm afraid. In general, alot of these emerging economies that have enjoyed record growth over the past 5 years (Brazil, Russia, China) relied on export growth for a large part of their growth/income growth. If there's a global slowdown, the exports will fall off sharply and result in overcapacity... will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few quarters
agree the US has got some serious socio-economic structural type problems on its hands (not all of them necessarily unique to the US though) and the conclusions of the Kotlikoff report http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1155252&highlight=kotlikoff#post1155252 wld need to be acted upon presto... and then there is the Middle-East... anybody's guess how this is going to pan out & the impact on the global economy over the next few quarters... but it seems to me that the current bias is rather pessimistic (and that wld already be factored in today's price levels), no?
somewhere aroung $5G annual for 3 access logins... and there are premium access levels that cost much more. i'm trying to get my international speculations skills up. if i'm successful i'd consider buying a membership as its the best macro economic/geostrategic resource I've ever seen outside of a large institution. They'd be happy to explain details to you i'm sure. I spoke to them but may have gotten some details wrong... right now it's a little rich for my blood...
have no regrets pal... roub's definitely thought-provoking and smart enough therefore its always a 'good' read if you enjoy permabear litterature but there are better ones... keep looking http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1178176&highlight=lowdown#post1178176
I stand corrected. You sir, are right in stating "i don't think you thought carefully before posting" Options, I no basically nothing about them--I don't employ their use. Anticipating global market moves long term is part of what I do; it's my niche ,as it were. I starting building positions months ago. Upon reviewing your plan it appears well conceived and I hope you reap many rewards.
Thanks for the gift, but I am already rich. What should I do now? Should I try to lose everything I have so I can gain it all back with your tip of the century?
Read his "week #34 prognosis" http://www.billcara.com/archives/2006/08/week_34_2006082.html#more Then tell me which way the market moves in 2 weeks or in 2 months.