and in the end it will make the country a little bit more efficient: there will cut backs on unnecessary travel. hopefully it will also increase the international shipping costs which in its turn will have the result of manufacturing more close to home, which aids the jobmarket, then because more gets manufactured close to home less imports happen etc etc....
From one noob to another ya better research this strategy more and narrow the time table because a shotgun technique without a more focused time line will @ the very least dilute a wind fall; and that is what it would be. The other option of your options would be erosion, corrosion decay and implosion. Then again you might really get lucky(if you believe in luck) and really bank on your cast of the net. Something's gonna happen this OCT-NOV, I don't know what the trigger will be but I'm pretty sure it won't be due to inflationary rhetoric pressures or a scholar's recessionary/depression expectations.
I agree with his assessment of the economy. Actually i've been looking for that big bear trade since 2003, constantly losing my little "probe trades" ever since. No matter how good a research report sounds, or how many people agree with it, it's the actual market action that determines my trades. I dont' make a move unless there is confirmation on the charts (which represent FACTS, not just opinions). So until the SPX closes below 1220-1225, there's no point in adding to a put position or establishing one.
here's a bear i can bear, j.mauldin, always interesting, unpretentious etc... just fyi: Goldilocks and just one Bear - Stagflation Lite http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo081806.pdf
1. Anyone that thinks its a good idea for the government to run a surplus doesn't understand a capitalist system. 2. Show me ONE TIME in our past 200+ year history where deficit spending has had any negative impact on economic growth. 3. Don't bet against the American consumer. Household wealth is still near record levels. I have been hearing the same lame arguments that consumer spending is over yada yada yada. 4. Your handle is very apropriate, but unnecessary.
Thanks for the advice, but: I don't want to narrow the timetable. I think the market will trend down for the duration of the (next) year. During this time we may see a crash/severe correction and/or short-term rallies. My goal isn't to trade options in and out of these events. My goal is to put on a long-dated trade now when the puts are cheap and the coming market turmoil hasn't yet been priced into the implied vol. Erosion? Won't happen until 2007, and by then the options will be coming into the money. These are long-dated options - theta decay increases over time. The more time to expiration, the slower the theta decay. what is corrosion decay? Implosion? Well, I am long puts, so my risk is limited. At worst, I will be able to sell most of these off at a loss. If I make money, it won't be luck. If I lose money, it will be because I made a bad trade. But if I make money, it won't be luck. Give me a fvcking break. "inflationary rhetoric pressures or a scholar's recessionary/depression expectations" what are you talking about? i don't think you know... i never said that rhetoric or roubini's predictions would move the market. i don't think you thought carefully before posting
1. Anyone who thinks it's a good idea for the government to run a deficit during an expansionary phase in the cycle - effectively eliminating their fiscal buffer for the coming recession - really doesn't understand our capitalist system. 2. I can't do this, I'm not an economic encyclopedia. But I can tell you that a) 200 years is the wrong timeframe. The dollar has been fiat domestically since 1933, and internationally since 1971 - so take your pick, and b) your mentality is indicative of the thinking amongst those in government that has allowed our deficit and national debt to spiral out of control. The problem with the deficit is that we won't see any direct negative effects until the tipping point. And when that happens it's too late. It's like saying "look, no seatbelt and I'm fine!" But what happens when you run off the road? Related question for you Arnie. Show me ONE example of a successful fiat currency in the 800 years fiat currencies have been used within a modern economic context? The problem with deficit spending is that it is a direct representation of the main flaw of fiat currency systems. The gov has the power to print its own money in a fiat system, but it's not supposed to. Fiat currency systems would survive if governments could manage this. Our government can't. There are supposed to be checks and balances that ensure this doesn't happen in an out of control manner, but our political system makes it impossible for those checks and balances to work properly. That's the problem. We spend too much andnothing bad happens, so we print more and then spend that as well, then repeat. Deficit spending is a necessary economic tool. Reckless deficit spending is the reason why there has never been a sustainable and successful fiat currency system in modern history. 3. Household wealth is still near record levels... right. It's called a peak. Now what happens is the decline in household wealth. Could it be that the rise in household wealth was tied to the exceptional rise in home values? Could it also be that as housing busts, so will household wealth? 4. Ok? Next time you'd like to point out flaws in my thought process - make sure yours is sound first?