A free Trading System that guarantees at least 180% p.a.

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by botpro, Apr 16, 2016.

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  1. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    That's okay. There are lots of inconsistencies in your system. They are obvious but no one has pointed them out to you... why do you think that is?
     
    #51     Apr 17, 2016
  2. botpro

    botpro

    You tell me.
    Which inconsistencies have you found that you make such a statement?
     
    #52     Apr 17, 2016
  3. botpro

    botpro

    Update: The PnL is even higher: it's 218.32% p.a. because we only need $5000 - $460 credit as investment, ie. the basis for PnL calc is $4540:
    Code:
      The PnL is even higher. Here the updated formula and results:
        MonthlyPnL = 460 / (10,000 / LeverageFactor - 460) * 100 = 10.13%
        AnnualPnL  = ((1 + 10.13/100)^12 - 1) * 100              = 218.32%
    
    And: the system is freely scalable to any investment amount.
    But, as was said in previous postings: the stock position should not be too big because it must be easily closable and re-openable. I would say max $50k.
    For big money one would use multiples of such constructs.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016
    #53     Apr 17, 2016
  4. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    You don't need me to tell you what they are. You clearly have it all figured out.
     
    #54     Apr 17, 2016
  5. botpro

    botpro

    Here's the latest version (v1.2) of the text with some fixes and additions. The PnL had to be corrected again: now it is 201% p.a.:

    Code:
    AN OPTIONS SELLING SYSTEM THAT GIVES A GUARANTEED PROFIT OF 201% PER YEAR
    Author : botpro at www.elitetrader.com
    Version: v1.2 - with updated PnL and margin calcs, and additional comments
    Date   : 2016-04-17-Sun
    
    
    Rules of the options selling system with simple hedging:
      1) The system consist of 2 parts:
           1.1) sell a call option of European Style, and
           1.2) go long the stock
    
      2) The option position is kept till expiration
    
      3) Simple hedging (not delta-hedging):
           3.1) if stockprice drops below the initial price then close the stock position immediately
           3.2) if stockprice crosses from below the initial price then re-open the stock position immediately
    
    
    Example: assuming InitialStockPrice=100, HistoricalStockVolatility=40%, using monthly options (ie. Expiration=21 business days)
      Selling 1 Call:
        Spot=100.00 Strike=100.00 ExpDays=21 HoldDays=21 EarningsYield=0.00% DividendYield=0.00% VolaPct=40.00% --> Call=4.60 Put=4.60
    
      Going long 100 shares of the stock:
        Spot=$100.00 --> CapitalNeeded=$10,000
    
      Since it's an option of European Style, an early assignment cannot happen, which is good in this case.
      At expiration date:
        Regardless what the CurrentStockPrice or the CurrentVola is: we will keep the credit fully.
        We will not make any profit from the stock position; all profit of the stock, if any, goes to the counterparty.
    
      Profit:
        We used the usual 2:1 overnight margin of the broker. So we have a leverage factor of 2.
        Meaning: of the $10,000 only half of it minus credit / 2 is our own investment (this is the basis for the PnL calcs).
        CreditReceived = $4.60 * 100 = $460
        MonthlyPnL = 460 / (10,000 / LeverageFactor - 460 / 2) * 100 = 9.64%
        AnnualPnL  = ((1 + 9.64/100)^12 - 1) * 100                   = 201.73%
        From these numbers the commissions paid has to be subtracted.
    
    
    Remarks:
      - It's up to you to apply this system in the market(s).
      - To get the hedging correct, one would need to monitor and if necessary trade the stock nearly 24/7
        by using multiple exchanges around the globe. Ie. by this, one has to eliminate any overnight gaps in the stock price.
      - If applied correctly then the given guarantee holds, ie. 201% profit per year.
      - Using more volatile stocks and/or a shorter timeframe than the above used 1 month will give even more profit.
      - Regarding margin: you have to do the math to get the 2:1 margin. Ie. in this case you would initially
        keep only $5000-$460/2=$4770 plus commission in your account. The broker grants you 2:1 overnight margin (or 4:1 intraday margin).
      - The system is freely scalable to any investment amount. But the stock position should not be too big,
        because it must be easily closable and re-openable; I would say the stock position should not be more than $50k.
      - For big money one would use multiples of such constructs, but then one should of course use different stocks.
    
    --- end of text ---
    
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016
    #55     Apr 17, 2016
  6. botpro

    botpro

    Can you find any other inconsistencies in the latest version (v1.2)?
     
    #56     Apr 17, 2016
  7. Please change your name to douchepro
     
    #57     Apr 17, 2016
    jj1111 likes this.
  8. botpro

    botpro

    Extension #1 to the system: Profit booster: How to make more than 8000% per year with this system:
    The smaller your own part of the invested total money is, the more the profit% will make up:
    Example:
    - let's say your own money is $1000
    - borrow the rest ($3770) cheaply from friends or take a 1 month loan
    - let's assume you have to pay 1% interest for the 1 month loan, ie. $37.70
    Now, your basis for the PnL calcs is your own $1000 plus the interest for the loan, in total $1037.70:
    MonthlyPnL = 460 / 1037.70 * 100 = 44.3288%
    AnnualPnL = ((1 + 44.3288/100)^12 - 1) * 100 = 8070.26%

    Since compounding gets used, each month the above absolute numbers would of course change, but the relations (ie. the percentages) would stay the same.

    It's all simple maths, folks! :D

     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016
    #58     Apr 17, 2016
  9. So the system is selling covered calls and your hedge is just getting in and out of the stock position if it crosses your entry? What if it goes a penny below your entry, a penny above, back and forth...soo much spent on the spread and commission potentially.
     
    #59     Apr 17, 2016
    CBC and Shay like this.
  10. It's obvious this guy is a tool shed. Hopefully no one is taking this serious. He's prob selling mentoring on PM.
     
    #60     Apr 17, 2016
    Roberto Lopez likes this.
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