Gold is being beaten up these days, but wherever I look, everybody is talking about the high inflation, due to the bailout money will eventually brings the gold price up to 1500 / oz. here is an example: http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/10/17/gold-prices-2/ if this is true then this price drop is just nothing but speculation ( as usual ) and we can start buying now. Let us know what you think
Let's see. In 2005 "everyone" predicted ever higher house prices. More recently "everyone" predicted $200 oil and that the dollar would go somewhere closer to zero. When gold and silver were peaking earlier this year once again "everyone" predicted much higher prices. Do you see a freakin' pattern here?!
This is why I'm beginning to say f*ck everything: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=141683 I really am beginning to become convinced that we're staring into a black hole here, and that we might as well torch the motherf**ker and start from scratch, letting the chips fall where they may. Sometimes, you can't save the system.
Exactly. A few short months ago "everyone" said deflation was impossible and "experts" had a million reasons and "facts" to prove it.
Assuming the bailout works to stabilize the banks and the economy, we will experience some horrendous inflation down the road. You are living in a dream world to expect the difference between revenue and expenditure to be made up through future increases in productivity and taxes, or reduction of consumption. Those will be factors, of course, but obviously the gap is too wide to be filled by these means alone. It will be filled to a significant extent via the only politically acceptable route, viz., inflation. Even so, i don't like gold at these prices, i like the beaten down commodities, which are classic hedges against inflation. I prefer to buy what others are throwing away, and then sell back to them once they have realized the error of their ways.
Assuming the bailout doesn't work, we are looking at a potential deflation problem regardless of the spending. That is why I just use my charts. For a longer term view, I use long term charts. I'm an economist by training, but I am not sure how this is all going to really work out, nor is anybody else. People claim to know, but its all just educated guess work.
Since the summertime my charts show oil down, nat gas down, corn down, wheat down, soybeans down, copper down, while the dollar has been going UP. I'm just a simple trader and admit that I know nada about economics but I don't think the above described is inflation. That story, at least for now, is done.
A) At any one moment, the market is always the best indicator of the value of something. Everyone else's prediction is only a guess, and can be dismissed. Goldman said Oil was going to $200. A few weeks later, now they think $50. B) This line was the only useful one from the website "The analysts provided no timetable for their predictions." So of it hits this in 3 months or 8 years, they are correct. In other words, their entire prediction is useless. C) Who is "us"? You have a few tapeworms in there?
Currencies and Commodities - two things that should scare anyone out of their mind. I guess some people have mastered consistent profits trading these, and more power to them, but I can't comprehend it. DANGEROUS.