A demographic whirlpool, too ?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by deucy28, Dec 27, 2012.

  1. deucy28

    deucy28

    This brief is from Don Creech email I received Dec 3, 2012 (I referenced him near the beginning of this thread.) I copied and pasted the following. The words: ... "The U.S. birth rate"... is a hyperlink in the Creech email that takes you to a Bloomberg article which is at the bottom of this post and longer than what I posted here but is instructive of the huge challenge ahead.

    The U.S. birth rate fell to a record low last year, driven by a decline in the number of babies born to immigrant women, who have led the growth in the nation's population for at least two decades.


    The country's birth rate fell 8 percent from 2007 to 2010, according to a Pew Research Center report. The rate dropped 6 percent for U.S.-born women and plummeted 14 percent for foreign-born females since 2007, the onset of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The decline continued last year to the lowest point since records began in 1920.

    The demographic trends aren't promising. In 1965, 81 million workers paid for benefits to 20 million people, a 4-1 ratio. The ratio has fallen to 2.8 workers per retiree and is expected to drop to two workers for every beneficiary by 2035, with 186 million workers paying for 91 million retirees.


    Medicare, the nation's health-insurance program for about 50 million elderly and disabled people, is in worse shape. The trust fund for that program is slated to run dry in 2024, its trustees said in an April report.


    The size of the two programs makes them potential targets for any deficit-reduction agreement designed to avert the fiscal cliff, the more than $600 billion in tax increases and automatic spending cuts set to start in January.


    (the longer article is Bloomberg at this link) ...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...w+12/3/2012&utm_campaign=WIR&utm_medium=email


    [​IMG]
     
    #11     Jan 14, 2013
  2. deucy28

    deucy28

    The national income accounts suggest that about 70% of U.S. output is attributable to the labor of human beings. Yet there has been a decline in the proportion of working-age Americans who are employed.

    In recent decades there was a steady rise in the employment-to-population ratio: For every 100 working-age Americans, there were eight more workers in 2000 than in 1960. The increase entirely reflects higher female participation in the labor force. Yet in the years since 2000, more than two-thirds of that increase in working-age population employed was erased.

    The decline matters more than you may suppose. If today the country had the same proportion of persons of working age employed as it did in 2000, the U.S. would have almost 14 million more people contributing to the economy. Even assuming that these additional workers would be 25% less productive on average than the existing labor force, U.S. gross domestic product would still be more than 5% higher ($800 billion, or about $2,600 more per person) than it actually is. The annual growth rate of GDP would be 2.2%, not 1.81%. The retreat from working, in short, has had a real impact.

    Public policy the last 4 years has aggravated this. Removing incentive to work.

    Full article here:

    http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324461604578193141690993174.html
     
    #12     Jan 17, 2013
  3. deucy28

    deucy28

    WAKE UP CALL !

    Brief videos below and my narrative here is derived from them.

    If there is a theme to the below-described, when economies are barely growing at 1 - 2 %, expect fertility rate to be below replacement rate. The decline of nations becomes particularly noticeable when once they were dominant as this persists.

    "Japan is a study in economic disaster !" when considering its fertility rate:"

    Japan economy last quarter of last century: 5.4% fertility rate.

    Japan economy during its last 20 years of 1% growth rate: 1.3% fertility rate.


    Current fertility rate: U.S. is 1.9% and middle class 1.6%


    Yesterday, on Fox Business News, Lou Dobbs presented the alarm with his chalk talk on the subject (video below, 3 minutes)
    and
    his interview with author of new 5-star rated/reviewed book (video below 5 minutes).



    Lou Dobb's chalk talk on Fox Business News (3 min video) Feb 5, 2013
    "America in the midst of a Baby Bust?"
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/l...-the-midst-of-a-baby-bust/?playlist_id=164630

    Interview with Jonathan Last, author of... What to expect when no one's expecting.... (5 min video) Feb 5, 2013
    "Is U.S. Fertility Rate Hurting Competitivenss:?"
    "Currently we are below the fertility level of replacement rate."
    "Strip out the illegals that are present in this country and we are exactly like Europe, which has been obsessed with its future for lack of young."
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/l...e-hurting-competitiveness/?playlist_id=164630

    BOOK TITLE: What to expect when no one's expecting
    Jonathan Last
    http://www.amazon.com/What-Expect-When-Ones-Expecting/dp/1594036411
    5 star rating of 42 reviews

    home page...Lou Dobbs, Fox Business News
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/lou-dobbs-tonight/index.html
     
    #13     Feb 6, 2013
  4. deucy28

    deucy28

    Now a published article on Jonathan Last's book:

    "What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster"

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/02/12/us-births-decline/1880231/

    noob_trad3r provided it at his kick-off post at his new thread on this same subject at this same forum "Economics."


    And if you get to Hawaii, this guy and his gal are experts on the subject.....

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3716091#post3716091
     
    #14     Feb 17, 2013
  5. deucy28

    deucy28

    #15     Mar 15, 2013
  6. deucy28

    deucy28

    Add to this 4.17 tillion dollars of unfunded liabilities of state, cities, and educational districts.

    http://hotair.com/greenroom/archive...trillion-dollars-california-ranked-the-worst/


    Personal note. I pitched high school baseball against Stockton, California, and beaned a few of those cowboys. I wonder if any of them became city council members ?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/01/stockton-bankruptcy_n_2993580.html
     
    #16     Apr 3, 2013
  7. deucy28

    deucy28

    It's about time to post here again on the subject.

    The following DEMOGRAPHICS article is global in nature, fairly broad in scope, but has some gems in it.

    It is an easy, fast read. Certainly has investment / currency implications.

    It is a year and half old ! I found it today integrated within current articles on the CNBC web site. The thing about demographics is that it is slow moving and a 18 months old is not old.

    Don't let that scare you off. It was the second in a series I believe all from the magazine the Economist and posted on CNBC web site.

    Look for the links in the right margin with the provocative titles that list the series.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46683669
     
    #17     Sep 13, 2013