A Decade After Crisis, Investors Have Stopped Hunting for Black Swans

Probably means we'll get the big move now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-deca...ve-stopped-hunting-for-black-swans-1504603800

 

Possibly, but ironically an absence of black swans up till now and possibly for years in the future is a black swan in itself.

 

When everyone least expects it, they drop the curtain. Mom and pop are most likely not going to sell before because of the news articles "S&P 500 hits a new all time high."
It enticed them to hold for the past hundred years, who's to say this time is different?
And, it's a shame they get burned like this but the primary dealers are not colluding for just pennies.

Just waiting on the word.

 

Investors are fickle. It was real easy to open a long volatility fund in 2009 when spx vol was at 30. It's real hard now that vol is at 10.

They go where the money was most recently made.

 

It's much easier to trade day in, day out boringly and relatively steadily...

Instead of hunting and betting on black swans, or somewhat rare events, (the Quarterlies game included)

You want frequency...that's Key, -- higher revolutions, generally equals higher potential overall returns,

 

So true.

 

Must give Taleb a big royal pain

 

Black Swans don't exist anymore until the next one hits

- Einstein Obvious

 

I never believe Black Swan exists, unless I see one.

 

Taleb himself closed his own Empirica fund after bleeding too much waiting for a black swan.