I was just about to short and it started spiking up again at 59.80 I know its Friday but give me a break. Im just looking for retracement though not a long term short here.
This is how I view today: I am quite confident that crude will continue to rally into the G7 this weekend. I am quite confident that it will fall next week. Now, I would just wait until the close to short, but I have to wonder: what if I'm not the only trader thinking this? Since I don't know which way it will go on the close, I'm not risking it. My short is in, and my quote screen is off until next week. I could probably get a better entry price on my short, but then I may entirely miss a good entry price waiting for it (like I did yesterday on the rise).
I was thinking on a move to 61 or 62 and then a correction way back to $60. Im going to short 61-62, i don't like to go long here..
Closed out under 58.... I'm not going to risk buying this week, so currently just waiting for crude to retrace back up... don't see it hitting 60 again...but 59 probably.
apex... I agree with your chart, although I'm not sure about your wave one. Thus, I'm wondering if we've just completed a wave 4... your thoughts?
Shorted at 59.40, waiting to see if it hits 60 or not. If it does, I'll put a buy in at 57.25. If it doesn't...I'm going to have to spend a lot of time determining an exit point. Apex... once again I really appreciate the inclusion of your chart. I cannot begin to express how important I think that particular analysis is. I would love to hear further comments on it.
what' happens now is a complete nonsense oil can move $2 in less than an hour it lost any connection with reality. Although it's fun and good money but Im afraid soon it might be $10 swings within a day
Thanks for the comment JJgallow. I see where you are coming from with the wave 1. I also agree with you. However, I am not a perfectionist and at times will use my discretionary to tweak things. With that said, it seemed best in my analysis that the wave 1 was a bearish 12 12 that resumed into a wave 3. The wave 4 is also just coming from experience and looking at these things everyday. I see where you are coming from but if anything, this supposed new wave 4 could only develop into a bullish wedge. IE, wave 3 is not long enough and the correction has already pierced above the previous low. You can also see the dramatic reversal in crude since it bottomed to the projection to the tick. This is also behaviour associated with the completion of a 5 wave move. I try to stay objective and not over analyze every detail making sure its perfect. If I did this I would never know what part of the structure we were at and would definately lose money.
Thank you kindly Apex, Let me first say that, despite our opposite sentiments, I really appreciate your expertise. Hopefully, if we trade well, we can both make money even though one of us will be fighting the market to make it, lol. You've given me a lot to mull over, but what struck me most noticeably was the rule of wave 4 not crossing wave 1. On some websites, this is an absolute...never broken rule. From other sources, it is given absolutely no importance. Not very helpful for the Elliot Novice. As an example, look at StockCharts.com, at the bottom of this link: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory I've also posted an attachment of what they call a "Classic Elliot Wave". So, my question to you is: Does this rule prove my wave count wrong 100%, or, less likely? thank you apex