I agree. It's double top. crowd is bulish now and fundamentals turned bearish now the weather can't be colder than now. heating oil inventory still well above average and anyway with one month of the winter left they're not reallly relevant now so all points to some reatreat - probably to 55-57 level
I think a quick drop to 55 for oil is in the cards. Some support at $57 but if it punches through, a quick drop back to 55. I don't think oil will stay under 50 this year... it might touch it again but won't be lingering there for an extended period of time.
Lots of "nows" in this...the only thing that I think is going to happen, NOW, is that we're headed for 60. Trading 59.42 at the moment with less than two hours until the number. If the crude build is small, and the distillate draw large (Platts numbers: looking for a CL build of between 1.6 - 2.0 million bbls. and a distillate draw of 3.4 million bbls....gasoline is expected to build 2.0 million, but that shouldn't move the market either way--distillates are the driver now), we will see 60+ today. If not, we could back off a buck or so from present levels.
You agree...that I should take a breather, right? lol Been a scalper's dream so far today. I'm thinking we come down from here but we'll all find out in an hour. Price has met resistance at $59.59. As shown in my chart, this is an expected area of resistance although for all I know the market may just think it's a "Cool number", lol. I would venture to say that the dips are heavier and longer, while the rises are shorter and spiked. Fundamentally, the market should be ready for the numbers at 10:30. I'm starting to get convinced of a retracement again with warmer weather coming.
Yup, inventory rise beats estimates by 0.7 million (based on TradetheNews's numbers). Down we go.. LOD? who knows. $58.50? $57.10?
What's LOD? Crude actaully had a draw in inventories when concensus was a 1.5 - 2.0 million bbl. build, and distillate inventories were in line 3.0 - 3.5 million bbl. draw...and we still sold off. Bullish number for CL and neutral for HO and we tank. I take back my earlier predictions, my thinking now is that this thing will have to head lower and consolidate before we can rally above 60. Technicians: where are we headed?
Hey, LOD stands for Low of Day. -looks like I need to read reserve numbers better. I'll work on it, lol. -I'm not an expert, but I saw resistance at $58.50 and $57.10. Looks like the latter to me, for now. cheers p.s....maybe $57.50? lol ...I'm out of my short position at $57.50 due to appearing resistance and my apparent lack of knowledge on reading reserve reports. I'll look at both and figure them out before my next entry.
How much money are you trading? Full sized or miNY contracts? I'm a trader for a producer and would be glad to help you out with the reports if you want. Do you have IM?