A couple of his ideas for the next 12-18 months: - long GBL (German Bunds). He thinks yields wills go from ~4% to 2.5% within 18 months. - short EURUSD. He "wouldn't rule out parity once this is all over". - short GS/C to 0 (If I understand him right he means all big banks/financials in the US) as they will be "government run entities within 12 months". - short eastern European currencies - specially Hungary - as "they're experiencing a BOE 1992 type event". All of these have had tremendous runs already but he sees lots of upside still. From all the bears, this guy is my favorite. Humor, wit and the balls to bet big when things are this stretched already. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=935472423&play=1
If he can top 100%+ per month over eight years, I will listen. Otherwise, it's just another boob on the tube.
Nothing new if you are a TRUE Global Macro trader you would have latched onto these trades mid May last year. Only changes have been; IMF has allowed Latvia to access its funds for currency support and debt issuance, so that delays the inevitable. Turkey on the other hand has been viewed as too strategically important to fail (given the constant push and tugs between the Government and Army), Russian Rouble was a short when oil moved down again below USD$115, 3 Austrian banks have been great targets for EUR 0.00 as well. As for Goldman Sachs, get yourself a Capital IQ subscription and see how many silly transactions they were involved in between Q3 2005 and Q1 2007 P.S. Don't forget South Africa Rand - ZAR (too many illiterate violent thugs) and Argentine Peso (stupid leadership)
I'd run a MILE from any fund that produces those kind of stupid returns. Not that any fund could of course. It's the mark of a gambler, not someone who approaches this game from a RISK ADJUSTED point of view.
http://www.ft.com/cms/86a30e34-dfd5...tml?_i_referralObject=1009054857&fromSearch=n Hendry's "5 ideas for 2009": 1. What if government bonds (US, French, German + Japanese) continue to outperform stock markets in 2009? 2. What if China goes into a depression? 3. What if the PIIGS EUR zone countries get into trouble rolling over their debt and skid towards default? 4. What if the USD continues to rally in 2009 and EURUSD goes back to parity? 5. What if Gold actually has a down year?
The PIIGS are in really, really bad shape, but can any of them afford Euro exit ? C'mmon Italy cannot even organise proper rubbish collection. Goldman coined the term BRICs Financial Times coined PIGS Can ET be accredited for PIIGS ?
Thanks for posting this Makloda. I saw this guy late one night on squawk box. I wrote his name down and misspelled it. couldn't find anything about him on the internet. Glad to see his fund is doing well. Can't wait to watch this snippet.
With regards to point #5: gold down against what exactly? I assume, given that the second currency in the pair is not mentioned, that he means that gold could depreciate against the US Dollar. It could fall all the way to 850 US Dollars on 31 December 2009, and have a down year. Furthermore, let's assume that gold is at 850 US Dollars on 31 December, and the EUR/USD goes to 1.00, and the GBP/USD goes to 1.15, and the AUD/USD falls to 0.50. Gold would be at 850 EUR and 739 GBP and 1700 AUD, then investors in these countries would be delighted. Meanwhile, US gold investors would only see a minor nominal decline in the "US Dollar value" of their gold holdings, while watching the S&P 500 could fall well below 750.