Wow, traded 25 years? I would have thought you would have grown up a bit in a quarter century. But judging by most of your posts and the manner in which you "speak" I'll make the huge ass assumption that you are either a bullshit artists or just a lonely loser who feels strong behind the safety of his keyboard.
The Head and the left Shoulder already nicely formed and just missing the right shoulder now! ES 242 remains the Target.
That would be the mother of all head and shoulder patterns. Looks like we're headed back to 11K and then WE FUCKED, WE FUCKED! EVEYBODY RUN!
Ports beautiful (thanks to the true source) chart of inflation adjusted returns tells us that practically all of the market's returns over time (all but a few percent roughly the equivalent of treasury bonds) are due to inflation. Thus the diversified investor stays in the market to remain slightly ahead of inflation. When we compare Ports inflation adjusted chart to ESS1060's nice charts we can see that the latter are essentially charts of inflation over the years and show us that the up trend of the market (steady in the case of the log chart or dramatic in the case of the linear chart) is due almost entirely to inflation. What we are seeing with all of these charts is the expected returns over time of an index fund plus fees, either inflation adjusted or not. This is what diversified buy and hold investors have to look forward to. Nevertheless, over time, this is better than investment in non-inflation indexed bonds which will lose money when the return is adjusted for inflation. In contrast, diversified market returns over time should be positive by a few percent (it appears to be about 3%) after adjustment for inflation. I have never been a fan of TIPS simply because the Government cheats on the inflation figure it uses to adjust the yield. Otherwise TIPS would be a better long term investment than an index fund. But one can not say categorically that diversified investment in the market is better than investment in bonds because of the risk that the timing of your capital needs may correspond to market valleys rather than peaks. Perhaps TIPS are not such a bad deal after all. We can conclude that it will be impossible to get rich by buying and holding bonds and it will take a very long time to get rich by buying and holding a diversified portfolio. It is much better to start out rich. Very nice charts. Thank you all.
No one measures inflation adjusted returns or returns adjusted to gold. That's nonsense. The S&P 500 chart, for example, fails to take into account dividends. If you compound dividends it would cancel out most of the inflation.
Returns for the period 1900 - 2005 Average Return per year 9.6% (attributed 4.5% dividends and 5% earnings growth) Speculative return cancels out over time and has an insignificant contribution (only 0.1%). Source John Bogle
I assume Bogle's numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so I'm wondering what the real return is. Excluding dividends, it looks as though the earning growth would be close to 3% after correcting for inflation. this would be consistent with Ports inflation adjusted graph. If i recall correctly, Bernstein estimated in his book "Four Pillars of Investing" a total return of about 5% going forward. He argues that returns in the 21st century should be less than those in the last century.
We will re-test old lows and hopefully that re-test wont result in a grade of an F for fail. Lets see if the trap door doesnt spring open on this next swing like I suspect it just might.
On what fundamental basis ? Earnings ? Employment ? Deficit ? Any move even remotely near 10k would be purely technical at this point.