A comparison of 4 bear markets and where we are at today...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Port1385, Jan 4, 2009.

  1. Buy in August? That seems a nebulous idea to buy just before the historically two worst months of the year. Buying in January is higher percentage, and if it doesn't work out quickly, stay out for the rest of the year---if you aren't a trader.
     
    #11     Jan 4, 2009
  2. ===============
    Not exactly sure about the 1929 crash,party caused by taxes/ tariffs;
    thought the DOW went down 80%+/ -peak to valley like QQQ did last bear????????????????????????????????????????????

    [NasdaQQQ,$120 area downtrended to 20.00 area, peak to valley/all data;
    wisdom is profitable to direct.]

    Maybe the start of a bull market in real estate,yes;
    and auto's, technically speaking.Maybe , maybe not in autos.I am still thinking about buying/leasing/selling cars 11 hours per week.

    Dave Ramsey [FOX business]says to buy a new car, you should be a millionaire [7 figures];
    agree/agree, i may buy/rent/lease a a new car/ demostrator.
    If you know how to sell [most auto salesmen do NOT, no wonder auto dealers go out of business so much],
    you can get a good deal on ''demonstrator'':p
    ====================================
     
    #12     Jan 4, 2009
  3. Looks like a log chart.....do you have one that has a constant scale?
     
    #13     Jan 4, 2009
  4. ess1096

    ess1096

    The chart covers a market from a low of 40.60 to a high of 14,198.10 from a timespan of 1920 to 2009 (89 years)............ a linear chart would be completely useless in this case.

    However,as per your request, I have provided one to show how it looks. :D

    [​IMG]
     
    #14     Jan 4, 2009
  5. [​IMG]

    There is a risk of a violent snap back if the elasticity of the Superbear's briefs is tested.

    DYODD.
     
    #15     Jan 4, 2009
  6. Agreed 100%.
    The Dow dropped 49% from March of 1937 to March of 1938.
    A very sharp downturn in commodity prices occurred during that time period too.
     
    #16     Jan 4, 2009
  7. It is a waste of time to look at long term index charts like the Dow and S&P 500. The indexes are WEIGHTED and are susceptive to number foolery.

    The indexes MEAN NOTHING. Their values MEAN NOTHING. They are no more than an instrument used to fuck with the public's mind. You cannot take a CUMULATIVE index and apply ANY LOGIC TO ITS TRUE VALUE OVER TIME. You cannot take ANY secondary data generated based ON THAT INDEX and apply it with logic OVER TIME.

    Components move IN AND OUT of the index over time. You cannot judge the value of the index because it is not a static fixed representation of the 30 same components. It is worthless to spend time judging any valuation based on the indexes.

    This is where the naive trader and investor fall victim.

    You should be focusing on the 30 COMPONENTS of the Dow Jones Industrials instead of the entire index itself. Focus on the PERCENTAGE MOVE of each component and its history.
     
    #17     Jan 4, 2009
  8. Since you are the one screaming in previous threads about the market collapsing what do you think of that chart above?

    Im playing devils advocate here. Surely you would be more inclined to go a BULL short term than a BEAR based on that data. A 5% drop in the INDEX isnt going to kill you at this point, will it?

    You will lose more than 5% screwing around playing daytrading games this year than if you were to just buy 100% of your portfolio with SPY and sit tight.

    Down at these levels you short the spikes and buy the dips. Looking at 10 year horizons is crystal ball Ms. Cleo foolery.
     
    #18     Jan 4, 2009
  9. ess1096

    ess1096

    You are entitled to your opinion. However, if you really believe that indexes like the DOW and the S&P 500 don't have a psychological effect on market participants you are missing something.
     
    #19     Jan 4, 2009
  10. What did I say here previously:

    They are no more than an instrument used to fuck with the public's mind

    Having traded the markets for over 25 years, I'd say you are making a huge ass assumption of my cognitive skills and knowledge over that time.
     
    #20     Jan 4, 2009