I don't mean to say that shorting Jan-Dec was a bad trade idea either. My best guess (retrospectively of course) is that you got screwed by the flat price tanking. It just sounded like you were second guessing your sizing and/or mental state, which is probably a good thing to do from time to time
I never look at a trade as a bad idea or a good idea, because like I said, after the trigger is pulled its totally out of your control except for whether you add to your position or you close it out. I can't blame the market or any other external factors. I screwed this one up. I added to a losing position and I got punished for doing it, it may not have been a mistake if I didn't over extend how much I should have been taking--so it's either one error or the other. Yeah, partially why I made this was to see if I could correct mistakes before I start to get into bigger bank rolls. It's a lot better to make a mistake when it costs $5,000 instead of $50,000 or $500k. Completely out of the June/Dec, $6,000 loss which is about 2 1/2 weeks worth of work. From a big-picture and long-term perspective its not a huge loss, but I certainly hope I learned from it.
Position update: Flat on Jun/Dec CL, loss of $6,000 Got out a few days ago of my Wheat puts, realizing it was too strong (break even). Took 5 calls on it looking for it to continue trend. Took 10 contracts of a 50/51 Bear Put spread just in case it drops that low. And Talisman jumped since entry @ 4.20. Go novelty trade!
On Friday I also ended up adding two positions, this time a couple of bear put spreads. 50/51 March for Oil, and 1690/1700 for ES. I owned myself being in a position that had a bullish bias in the face of a commodity that was tanking hard. The pain is over and my eyes are opened, I should have been bearish and I certainly am now. Also looking for ES to get pulled down along with it, based only off sentiment of others. Fear begets more fear. I am not depositing any more funds for this 2 week cycle to teach myself a lesson from that Jun/Dec. If I can't trade properly with a larger bank roll, then I won't get the privilege and responsibility of trading with a larger bank roll at all. I am not going to add more chips until I am making better decisions.
Re-entered the live cattle spread for 2 contracts, I took another look at the seasonality and looks like it is still priming to break out. 5 Main trades on the go: Short Oil via 51/50 Bear Put spread for March Futures (CL) Short S&P via 1700/1690 Bear Put spread for March Futures (ES) Long Wheat via 700 Calls for March Futures (ZW) Long Talisman waiting for buyout from Repsol or someone else Long Live Cattle calendar -Feb/+Apr for seasonality (LE) Good start to the week, I'll try not to screw anything up.
Here's a chart of the seasonal I am looking at for the Live Cattle trade. (People love pictures). The notation this chart software uses for Calendars is reversed, so instead of -Feb/+Apr its +Feb/-Apr Ignore the dates up in the corner those are just for "line drawing" purposes, arbitrarily chosen
Yeah, that helped me claw back that loss on the Jun/Dec. I am essentially back to where I was from before taking that trade now. I am actually now back into the Jun/Dec only this time I am LONG at $2.00, currently at $2.20 and for 1/3rd the size that I took before. Current Positions: Long CL Crude Oil -Jun/+Dec @ 2.00, currently 2.10ish 2.20ish Long LE Live Cattle -Feb/+Apr @ -0.80ish, currently unknown... quotes are messed up Short CL Crude Oil via Long March 51/50 Bear Put Spread @ 0.20, currently 0.25/0.28 Short ES S&P 500 via Long March 1700/1690 Bear Put Spread @0.75, currently 0.70/0.90 Long ZW What via Long March 700 Calls @ 6.00, currently 10.75 So back in black, up to same P&L from before when I screwed up that CL Spread. I am happy.
Sounds like you are having a better day than me! I let a really good trade go from a nice profit to a large loss this afternoon.
Hey guys... Just wanted to let you know I moved this blog to its own website. http://naturalfinancial.com One last update before I semi-abandon this thread: Long ZW Wheat via 700 calls exploded... Entered @ 6.00, sold 40% of position @ 22.00, current @ 19.00 Short ES S&P 500 via Bear Put Spread.. Sold for small loss (-0.20 per contract) ----> Replaced this position with Long ES S&P 500 Bull Call Spread. March 2200/2210 @ 1.05 Short CL Crude Oil via Bear Put Spread 51/50 still open. In @ 0.20, Current @ 0.28 (+0.08 per contract) Long CL Crude Oil -Jun/+Dec @ 2.00, still open, currently 2.15 (+0.15 per contract) Long LE Live Cattle -Feb/+Apr @ -0.80ish, still open, currently -0.40 (+0.40 per contract) Account hit new highs. I am very pleased that I recovered from my Jun/Dec short blunder. Again... new blog is at: http://naturalfinancial.com I ported all my posts and all the comments from this thread to that website.