I'll be looking for a long too (probably bigger than 1%), but do keep in mind that the Asian session might be a bloodbath while it digests last Friday's US session. Or not, what do I know
It has already rallied last Fri 19 Apr, during the Mid-Asian session. Do note that the big boys reacted very fast and within a few mini seconds/minutes. They wouldn't react after many days/weeks. So what is going to happen coming Monday? It depends on the next major news/events.
Agreed. That's how the stock market tends to behave, i.e., by the time a trend is apparent and people rush in to buy or sell, the market is just about ready to reverse in the opposite direction. I would guess that this correction lower isn't over yet, though, so watching for continuation lower again following a possible short term rally higher which could last for days or even the entire week. A larger gap up open on Monday in RTH should warrant some caution to the long side, though, and quite possibly be a very good sell.
It's also amusing how conditioned everyone is to buying the dip by now. I've seen even the most bearish of traders trying to buy the dip and subsequently failing on this current correction. This is the type of market action that will crush newcomers and even intermediate players as it's a new playbook they've never seen before or one that haven't played out in a very long time. After a non-stop pump even the bears starts believing that this market is infallible and can't sustain a sizeable correction lower. And due to the sharp counter rallies it's hard to navigate as it's only too easy to think that 'this is it'.
the big worry is the fed, rest is just noise. until the bond guys reprice, equities can’t find a footing. ym real return to date is minus, given the risk free rate is 5%. spx and ndx are close to negative.
Here's a Spread Ratio chart of $SPX vs 10Y Yield. Made a triple (could even say a quadruple) top and has been heading lower the whole month of April so far.
From my own experience, inflation is muted but it is still there ( my grocery shopping and what i pay for gas)so the fed might not be able to reduce the rate in the next couple of months but market reaction to inflation is always short term and after a few days when we see good earnings the inflation worries go to back seat.