hard for me to think that way. It just is what it is. Who can predict the future? All I can do is predict it will keep doing what it has been doing. If it starts going back down it will keep going back down. If it starts going up it will keep going up, and if it keeps chopping it will continue to chop. That's why it is so easy to make money. Because all you have to do is look at what it has done and bet that's what it will do. Predicting reversals is for people who like to see themselves on TV.
From a day to day basis doesn't really matter much if you are a trader. But I would have to say that a day like today, or 2 more up days like this is a bearish start to the year. (See 2002 for same) For it still signals hope...hope is a bad thing; the abscence of hope would be more bullish...when there is no reaction to a good data point, then you know people don't care anymore..then you get bullish (See 1981-82, 1994) The past 12 months are littered with days like today, and we still ended the year horribly. Still to much hope out there for a recovery..not good.
Of course traders predict -- it is a natural thing to do. In my opinion, today was a great setup for shorting over a longer term (days / weeks). After watching this kind of shit over and over, it doesn't fool me any longer. The market will rocket up and then people will start talking about the "new bull market" and the end of the "bear market." Truth is, the economy is in the deepest levels of the shits -- regardless of what any one manufacturing report says. What amazes me the most is how people who report the market can turn on a dime. If the market goes down 200 points, you have all these analysts talking about how the economy is horrible, jobless claims are up and consumer debt is at an all time high. Lo and behold, when the market jumps up 260 points, a new set of analysts pops out of no where and starts running stories about "investors are returning -- 2003 comes in with a bang -- manufacturing is in an expansion phase with a number over 50" The funniest part about it is that it happens every time. The people who write for Yahoo Finance are especially humorous, because they write about the market as it happens and seems to always know why the market is doing what it is currently doing. This isn't the beginning of a new bull market. This is just the same old bullshit -- up one day and down the next.
Two things: 1. Yahoo Finance is even worse than you say. Their articles lag the market by a few minutes to maybe even as much an hour. So, whenever there is a sudden reversal to the upside, I love to scan Yahoo's stories about the sell off occurring. 2. Why exactly do you think those jokers are writing for Yahoo, or reporting the news on TV? If they were good at figuring out why the market was doing something EXACTLY when it was doing it, or what the market is going to do (future), they would be trading professionally. I get pissed off about the same things myself. I prefer to see strictly news items, with no commentary. I would rather decipher the information myself.
I think the best way to describe the market is "rotation". There always is a bull or bear market in some stocks or sectors. The first two days of the year have been good for the general market for years. Just plunk some money down long on a general index on Dec. 31 and ignore it until Jan.2 and you will have some moolah. However, the rest of the year is anyone's guess. Just keep riding the waves is all you can do. Not that I follow my own advice. Today I made a mess on a bull day. That is what I get for trading with problems on my mind
I left prediction behind when I stopped being a buy-and-hold investor. As a trader, I am only concerned with what is happening right now in front of me on any given day.