backfilling 12/01 FRI on 12/02, bc was out sick on 12/01 PM @ironchef-- hi, thank you for stopping by and taking the time to reply. I will review my model and system this weekend. Happy Holidays and a profitable new year to you too! 5m es
12/4 MON Meh day. One of the sub-systems got its timing perfect today. The operator (yours truly) had to interfere, and closed a good position too soon. Spent the weekend digging into my system. Got about one month's worth of rough stats to work with (October was too random to be useful <-- no clear trade labels no good idea which edge was being exploited, was mostly relying on PA tricks in isolation) -- so far, can see I am primarily trading three sub-systems ("setups" I guess). Each sub is influenced by rules, operator interference (human discretion), and its probability-payout profile. Also ran a little simulation to see if the probability part may be contributing randomness to the results. My takeaway-- one sub-system is probably garbage and I will not waste much energy or time on it for now. The other two show more promise. however, operator interference was a consistent problem. in addition, there aren't enough data points for stats to converge yet (each sub-system fires about once a day, simulation shows 50-100+ trials are needed for numbers to work under my assumptions, which is binomial 55/45 edge 1R *). *in my assumption, the system (rules + discretion) has a very small edge because 1/ the rules aren't stress tested, also not super well defined, 2/ discretion was adding randomness, a consequence of having weak rules. 5m es
12/7 THU Ok day. Holiday markets getting a bit lazy, replaying a lot of recent programs, with moves getting more efficient over each repeat. 5m es
12/12 TUE CPI report day. "Bad" news != bad news, the market firmly held a bullish bias. Did not have the right trading mindset today. Disruptions in my personal life bled into trading. Spent most of the day collecting stats and backtesting. es 5m
12/13 WED FOMC day. Though there was a somewhat predictable iow tradable TR prior to the statement and presser, price movement paled in comparison to what came after. I did freeze after 2pm ET (B55)--the original plan was to avoid trading FOMC, and I did stick with it. I think a conflict that made it tough was-- this spike was one of the most textbook spikes I have seen in my limited experience and study, my decision diagram says the easiest thing to do given the circumstances was to buy the close/at market; yet my fomc rule says newbie sit back watch and learn (felt as if it's in a small data event context, obviously I haven't studied enough to know whether the usual PA rules are robust in those situations). 5m es