10/26 THU slightly frustrating day--poor night of sleep did not help--it was an easier-to-read day personally, however, the one trade I wanted and waited for all day materialized without me. (B48 reversal-- premise and timing were ok, but too impatient and shaken out in B49) additionally, I am not good at entering late. there were a few places today, notably b31 and after b49. If I am "one bar too late" I let the entire move go without me. it is all part of the learning curve. all part of being inexperienced and not understanding edge well enough. it does feel I am getting a little bit closer each day. 5min exercise EoD summary 60min plan update HTF plan/context update SPY/spx cash index is getting closer to where I want to scale in long. nothing fancy here--just based on 200D SMA stats and a higher time frame rising trend line, and maybe a seasonality factor. Only thing is all sounds too painfully obvious.
You might want to try taking a smaller idc size and start forcing yourself to get back in/enter late where context supports it (like both entries you called out). Keep an eye on where stop order traders got trapped. In time you'll find better ways to enter, but it should help with the learning curve.
thank you @Georpe for your advice! i know I have a problem entering late in with-trend trades, when I think reward:risk has dropped below 1R. usually, the risk-reward / probability tradeoff seems to play out, so I guess I will teach my brain to get used to it over time, because I hate missing good trades more. 10/27 FRI Overall an unremarkable day today IMO. I had an exhausting week. Most of my better calls were small scalps earlier in the day (as I reread my summary table). the exhaustion announced itself as my reluctance to execute the little scalps. On the swing side, I held on to a reversal idea too strongly and downplayed the endurance of the bear. That was silly--against my own advice to avoid preconceived notions and follow the trend. Have a good weekend all. 5min exercise EoD table
That first bar put a tail through the 50% retrace of yesterday's range, signaling a short. The reversal bar you noted as bull flag established the trading range low and satisfied as such, long. The following spike set the high of the TR AND tested the 50% retracement, signaling another short. If not taking that entry, the following 2 strong bear bars setup a bull trap bar, Al calls those inferred pullbacks....aggressive entry selling that bull bar close, more conservative, the takeout of the big bear bar prior to the trap. The spike bear flag following your nested wedge note was the first close above the MA short in a strong trend another AL setup. The DB/W low/LLMTR was a final flag and bull leg into closing action. All in all an excellent day for PA.
10/30 Mon Key Takeaway today: I ended up missing too much of the upside because I was stuck with a very specific mental model about today's day type. I saw today as a classic BOM TR open with symmetry, and I was torn between an MM up and an MM down. I liked the context for shorts to retest yest L but the PA didn't make sense to short; I thought Longs had to overcome a more challenging context and there was little chance to get an MM up of the open range. I failed to anticipate an MM of approx the open gap (ofc as soon as the market closed I recalled all the recent examples that had a similar context) Happy Early Halloween in case I miss my post tomorrow! 5min exercise ^I thought today clarified the kind of plan traders should make for this week. My current thoughts in the callout box. EoD table
10/31 TUE happy Halloween! an abridged post today. i took the afternoon off--yard and leaves were out of control, had to clean up before the kids got there. I thought today was interesting because the market ran the same type of open program two days in a row. Traders could have traded them the same way: by counting the legs in TR and waiting for successful BOs to emerge. One subtle difference may be: that the market got above 60min EMA (barely), it's EoM, so HTF traders were there, and we saw larger doji/indecision/whipsaws during the TR to Trend leg transition. (or maybe it's just a coincidence!!) I felt more timid today because of EoM and I didn't want to trade a third push up in a possible wedge. more power to traders that catch those legs! 5min exercise
11/1 WED Not a bad day for PA. I did not trade as well as I wanted (a few places indecision: b21 minor reversal of open rally, b67 BO; a few places exiting too early: b31 pb shorts, b62 TR scalp); but I appreciate how the day unfolded according to a PA-based plan, despite treasury refund & fomc vol events. 5min exercise EoD summary
11/2 THU A somewhat boring day--spike and channel bull trend day, no bodies were below the EMA. During the dead hours over the midday period, I managed to trade gc better. But it also cost me later as I paid too much attention to intraday macro assets correlations (often not so reliable IME). Overall, once again, I found myself committing variations of similar mistakes. This is one of my biggest weaknesses--I'd have a decent plan, then as soon as minor details fail to follow exactly per plan, I start second-guessing the broader trade premise, and either micro-manage or exit too soon. e.g., today my plan was to hold a swing till the PA told me to (after I decided around b15 the bull spike and channel had good odds of succeeding), but I got out before reaching my target To address this issue, I must get out of my habit of predicting PA and over-analyzing simple pattern variations. It may be a fine line between false positives and real red flags, but I am def far from operating in a sweet spot. Alternatively, i may have to consider a more mechanical approach if i am swing trading, and let the rules take care of themselves. 5min exercise EoD summary
11/3 FRI TGIF. Decent day for PA. Similar to, yet somewhat different from yesterday. I managed my trades better, felt more in sync with the market and I can't quite figure out why. My energy and focus level was the same if not a little worse. My hunch is I started approaching the market using a consistent framework I'm comfortable with. This used to be a sticking point in my retros, being self-aware that I am not a "setup" trader. Anyhow it's only one day. I have to continue this exercise for much longer. Making a little progress each day one way or another is the main idea. --- 5min exercise EoD summary
11/6 MON There were a few decent markets for PA today (like most days). I notice myself busy structuring trades rather than taking detailed bar-by-bar notes. Maybe that is a sign of progress. I was paying more attention to gc today frankly speaking. some days I prefer this market to emini because I find the PA clearer and simpler to read. Their pit session starts earlier and is shorter, which works better with my schedule as well. 5min exercise on es *I did find the "MTR" in the PM confusing at first, partly because I was expecting a "full-sized" bear trend channel of 30s-40 pts minimum. However, b47 strong LoD look, and time of day function after b58 made a PB bear less likely. By the final hour, it was clear the PB sellers were stuck short and the market squeezed them higher into NYSE close. Range contraction after recent climactic buying signals increased BO/fBO risk in either direction. 5min recap of gc