Schizo: I said best price and did not say best entry, so did not mean the most ideal places for entry; context is the key for this kind of entry (today's context is very good for this entry). In Wyckoff's paper, he did say best entry. At best price entry, stop would be 1t below open low or 2t below open box low, because of betting on that open box low test has finished in the near future. The target is the hesitation near the top red TL or undrawn small up TL break (borrowed from DB's journal) because very likely there will be a PB near top red TL, then seek to reenter at 2nd best price entry place. During my ES trading experience, I often made mistakes of entering around swing high (top of spike) as shown in my paper trade 1 yesterday ( today i didnot trade) with a 2ps stop which in general it will be stopped out and then ES moved in my direction; widening my stop and Exit BE and then ES moved many points in my direction or becoming greedy and then being stopped out at a bigger stop again. Those bad experiences taught me to have a PT at hesitation. Moreover, it is like a gift to get 4ps or 5ps profit in minutes, we just get to take the gift and walk away. (gift, borrowed from Al Brooks's saying). I am in the process to define precisely what i meant to prepare forward testing and later will upload another chart for better illustration. Also i just realized worst price entry is much better than my long spike top as in paper trade 1 of yesterday (same price, but much higher probability of no or less PB), which i will describe what i meant later. Thank you very much for your kind help.
About entry with the best price, smallest winning probability, scary feeling on ES 10/1/2013 (initial chart in previous post on page 6): Context: 60m chart--- http://i.imgur.com/Omx1HJt.jpg Possible future move: 15 chat --- http://i.imgur.com/x7yRvtz.jpg Timing entry: 1m chart --- http://i.imgur.com/TV0A5Eu.jpg After Entry: 1m chart ---- http://i.imgur.com/pWi9QBB.jpg 5m chart --- http://i.imgur.com/VhqTekh.jpg Notes: after failed BO below and re-enter TR and then follow through BO above TR and small down TL, could limit enter if so sure about LLOR is immediate UP when testing TR top but may not filled if limit entry price too conservative. Bracket order may be the answer: limit entry and stop entry. Y_1: the day before today (9/30) Y_2: two days before today (9/29) AMT: after market time
Today I observed ES and did some reading. You may find the following informative on "having to modify one's approach according to traders' zigs and zags rather than glue oneself to mechanical trade-by-number": http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/5097-trading-wyckoff-way-archive-41.html
Huyang Keep up the good work. At least you're reading and trying to incorporate new ideas into your trading. Just a small note that trading ES is a bit tougher than trading NQ, especially intra-day. For learning purposes using pure price action I would suggest focusing on NQ at least during the learning phase. At the end of the day it doesn't matter as you can always increase your contracts if you have available funds but the advantage of observing cleaner price movements is not insignificant. Gringo
Gringo: Thank you very much for your kind words and advice. I believe what you said. My plan is: (1) I have watched ES for one year and will continue to observe it for several days and refine my trading plan and then will start sim-trading ES for 15 days. The objective is to consistently follow the plan (particularly, not widening stops). (2) After finishing 15-day sim-trading, I will start to observe both NQ and ES.
Huyang, Yes, this is a good example. The cleaner price moves allow a trader to make cleaner decisions. It's a hard concept to really explain but once you start to understand price movement you'll appreciate the difference. Gringo
Gringo: Another difference observed at swing top. Thank you for your advice. One friend mentioned it to me many times but i always refuse to really try it until now. I really need to follow line of least resistance but not the opposite, not only in price move also in choosing trading market.
I like the following very much, from the thread page 67 Son of if you can draw a straight line: In Lao Tzu's Dao De Ching, his philosophy in both life and government prefers inactivity, non-coerciveness and self-lessness. These attitudes will naturally align oneself with the path of least resistance and approach the way of nature: 1) Inactivity. Non-trading is what makes trading functional. Without waiting for the good trades, the profits of the good trades will be squandered by taking marginal trades and commissions. Like the space inside an empty container, it is the non-entity or nothingness that makes the entity functional. 2) Non-coercive trading. Stiffness and being tough are signs of death, just like a corpse, or dry branches. Yielding and being soft are signs of life just like a living person and a life plant. Water goes to the low places and compromises with the surroundings without ego yet it can penetrate rocks and surround mountains over time. These are evidence that softness is superior to hardness. Detect the true rhythm of the market and don't fight it. It takes skill and conviction, and being too "soft" may result in "stop and reverse" trading, which leads to poor entry and an emotional roller coaster, turning the small winning edge into sh*t. It's better to stay out when the rhythm is not clear because the market IS random when she tries to gather energy by luring opinionated participants with her dance. 3) Self-less trading. Retire your ambitions and trade without agenda. Chasing some number in the head will start chaos in one's performance and one will deviate from the way of nature. Don't make yourself walking on wire. Have both feet on the ground. This is age-old life philosophy applied to trading. I hope these will help us in life, too, and make us better persons to others. Good trading. Martys
Attached is today's trading log since i put all those trades details in TOS chart. To be clear, i put links for charts of todays' trades (pdf has charts of contexts): NQ trades: http://i.imgur.com/bKbK5Zl.jpg ES trades: http://i.imgur.com/ogTuxMr.jpg