A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Discussion in 'Journals' started by geez, Dec 21, 2008.

  1. geez

    geez

    The only time I add to winning position is if it sets up again and this just becomes another trade. I was long BP today and almost "added" or took a second trade in it. I'm sure puddles will post the chart and it will be easy to see the second trade entry.
     
    #3001     Dec 6, 2010
  2. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101206/spy.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101206/rimm.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101206/amgn.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101206/wlp.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101206/bp.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101206/mon.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101206/amzn.png">

    9:36

    (2min play)
    LONG RIMM 63.16
    STOP 62.99
    TGT 63.47

    - Real strong from the open
    - SPY gaps down but heads higher
    - out -0.20

    9:41

    (2min play)
    SHORT AMGN 63.39
    STOP 63.47
    TGT 63.23

    - Gap and crap
    - out -0.08

    10:16

    SHORT WLP 56.39
    STOP 56.51
    TGT 56.18

    - WLP weak from the open
    - Tight lower high at the lows while SPY tries to retrace
    - Should have been a b/e stop
    - out -0.16

    12:32

    LONG BP 42.51
    STOP 42.47
    TGT 42.59

    - BP jamming up against .50 resistance
    - Long over it
    - Identified all the potential add spots as per geezy's request
    - out +0.08 and +0.13 on a trailer

    13:56

    SHORT MON 62.41
    STOP 62.51
    TGT 62.21

    - MON weak since 11am
    - tight lower high while SPY heading higher
    - out -0.13

    15:11

    LONG AMZN 177.59
    StOP 177.40
    TGT 177.97

    - Great strength in the afternoon
    - out +0.36

    http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/12/07/2010-12-06-trades/
     
    #3002     Dec 7, 2010
  3. Puddles,

    Can you go over your rules you are using for entries?

    By looking at your chart, I am not seeing any obvious setups.
     
    #3003     Dec 7, 2010
  4. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/spy.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/rimm.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/low.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/aig.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/dtv.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/cat.png">

    9:32

    (2min play)
    SHORT RIMM 62.69
    STOP 62.85
    TGT 62.37

    - whole market gaps up, RIMM tanks from the open
    - Market does not appear to rip higher, look for a short
    - out +0.31

    9:42

    (2min play)
    LONG LOW 25.06
    STOP 24.99

    - LOW on daily long watch
    - LOW gaps up and heads higher while SPY stays in a range
    - out -0.09

    9:54

    (2min play)
    LONG AIG 44.42
    STOP 44.29

    - AIG ranging at the highs while SPY drifts lower
    - out -0.15

    10:07

    SHORT DTV 39.94
    STOP 40.02
    TGT 39.78

    - Huge weakness from the open
    - Short the tight lower high under the round #
    - out +0.15

    10:23

    LONG CAT 91.59
    STOP 91.34

    - CAT gap and go while whole market gap and crap
    - out -0.26

    http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/12/07/2010-12-07-trades/
     
    #3004     Dec 7, 2010
  5. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/spy.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/lvs.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/bdx.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/yhoo.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/osk.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/cam.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101207/rax.png">


    13:51

    SHORT LVS 48.09
    STOP 48.23

    - LVS setting up a tight lower high at the bottom of the range while SPY strong
    - (SPY was probably a little too strong to take this entry)
    - out -0.14

    14:17

    LONG BDX 81.72
    StOP 81.62
    TGT 81.92

    - BDX on daily long watch and been strong all day
    - SPY heading back to the highs
    - out -0.1

    14:19

    LONG YHOO 17.02
    STOP 16.97
    TGT 17.12

    - See above
    - out -0.05

    14:30

    LONG OSK 34.62
    STOP 34.52
    TGT 24.82

    - OSK with a ton of strength.
    - The RTM guys had this on watch so we were trying to catch it for one more leg up before they pounced
    - Bought the top
    - out -0.13

    (SPY fell off a cliff which of course occurs when I'm in the 3 longs mentioned above)

    15:10

    SHORT CAM 49.29
    StOP 49.45
    TGT 49.00

    - Market strong until the 3pm selloff
    - CAM weak all day, look for continuation in a tight lower high
    - out +0.29

    15:31

    SHORT RAX 30.39
    STOP 30.51
    TGT 30.15

    - Same as above.. moved stop when it got close..
    - ticked out then straight to tgt
    - out b/e

    http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/12/07/2010-12-07-trades/
     
    #3005     Dec 7, 2010
  6. 9:40

    LONG GS 163.25
    STOP 162.99
    TGT 163.77

    out +0.44

    9:47

    SHORT UAL 25.18
    STOP 25.27
    TGT 25.00

    out +0.17

    10:05

    LONG LNC 26.57
    STOP 26.47
    TGT 26.77

    100 shares go lifted at tgt for +0.19, rest went back to b/e (fuuu lnc). counting as a b/e trade
     
    #3006     Dec 8, 2010
  7. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101208/spy.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101208/gs.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101208/ual.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101208/lnc.png">

    9:40


    LONG GS 163.25
    STOP 162.99
    TGT 163.77

    - GS gap and go
    - Long over the lower high, stop under the round #
    - out +0.44

    9:47

    SHORT UAL 25.18
    STOP 25.27
    TGT 25.00

    - UAL tanko from the open
    - Short under lower high as SPY turns
    - out +0.17

    10:05

    LONG LNC 26.57
    STOP 26.47
    TGT 26.77

    - Tight higher low at the highs while SPY sells off
    - 100 shares go lifted at tgt for +0.19, rest went back to b/e

    http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/12/08/2010-12-08-trades/
     
    #3007     Dec 8, 2010
  8. geez

    geez

    Too bad there are no AIG short charts posted....boy was that a nice chart!
     
    #3008     Dec 8, 2010
  9. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/spy.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/sndk.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/x.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/mee.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/v.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/akam.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/arg.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101209/ibn.png">


    9:47

    SHORT SNDK 46.79
    StOP 46.96
    TGT ..

    - Gap and crap, look for continuation
    - out -0.17

    9:48

    LONG X 53.03
    STOP 52.97
    TGT 53.15

    - Gapped up with SPY but headed higher (vs. SPY heading lower)
    - super tight higher low over round #
    - Probably should have given this more wiggle on the stop, 6c kinda tight for X
    - out +0.11

    10:01

    LONG MEE 51.18
    STOP 51.06

    - By 10am SPY had gapped up, sold off a bunch and almost retraced back to it's open
    - MEE strong from it's gap up, long over the higher low expecting the market to continue upward
    out -0.15

    10:15

    LONG V 78.02
    STOP 77.89
    TGT 78.28

    ADD V 78.25
    STOP 77.15
    TGT 77.45

    - SPY sells off from 10am forward (was there even a #?)
    - V holds its range at the highs
    - Long over the higher low

    - V sets up another higher low in a continually weakening market
    - Add half size and move all stops to .15

    - I should have taken some of my trade off at the original tgt. counting as 1-1

    out +0.13
    out -0.11


    10:56

    SHORT AKAM 51.59
    STOP 51.73
    TGT 51.31

    - AKAM gaps down vs. SPYs gap up
    - Weak all day, look for continuation as SPY is heading towards a gap close
    - out -0.24

    14:30

    LONG ARG 62.51
    STOP 62.34
    TGT 62.85

    - Apparently someone wants to buy these guys for $70 and that isn't good enough
    - Chat room folks were buying, sets up a nice triangle thingy at 62.50, Long over it
    - out +0.34

    15:13

    SHORT IBN 46.43
    STOP 46.58
    TGT 48.13

    - Gap down, weak all day
    - Look for cont under the lower high (as SPY is heading higher)
    - out +0.29

    Was a fun day watching AIG (even though I should have been in it more that I was).. GO AIG

    http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/12/10/2010-12-09-trades/
     
    #3009     Dec 10, 2010
  10. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101210/spy.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101210/lvs.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101210/stt.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101210/akam.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101210/unp.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20101210/aig.png">

    10:10

    SHORT LVS 45.87
    STOP 46.01

    - Tanko from the open
    - Look for continuation under the lower high
    - out -0.16

    10:32

    SHORT STT 44.99
    StOP 45.20
    TGT 44.54

    - Gapped up with SPY
    - Market sells off, STT sells off harder
    - Late on the short, huge stop, huge tgt
    - Couldn't get through support at .68
    - out -0.05 (b/e)

    11:16

    SHORT AKAM 51.69
    STOP 51.81
    TGT 51.45

    - AKAM basing at the lows on support
    - Short the break (geezy front ran me here from .72)
    - out +0.22

    11:17

    SHORT UNP 91.85
    STOP 91.95
    TGT 91.65

    - Weaker than spy since the open
    - Nice post 11am sellof
    - Look for cont.
    - out +0.19

    13:25

    LONG AIG 49.13
    STOP 48.99
    TGT ..

    - Been the stock of the last few days
    - tight higher low setup
    - out -0.16

    11-17 week, 16-28 month.. prob only a week of trading left this month too..

    http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/12/10/2010-12-10-trades/
     
    #3010     Dec 10, 2010