I think your target was awesome! AIG is a lot like crude oil; you're informed rather curtly when you step onto the wrong train :eek:
Setting an arbitrary risk/reward ratio is not an edge. Try testing random entries with the 1:2 risk/reward.
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100727/spy.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100727/mnta.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100727/esrx.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100727/wynn.png"> 9:38 SHORT MNTA 23.99 STOP 24.21 TGT 23.59 - MNTA was on the short list today after 2 massive extended up days - Short the break of the round # - out -0.22 9:42 LONG ESRX 40.11 STOP 43.99 TGT 44.35 - ESRX was actually on daily short watch but it's pattern caught my attention for a long - ESRX broke 40 and held - Long over the higher low - out -0.12 - I should have laid off this one 9:54 SHORT WYNN 87.99 STOP 88.3 TGT 88.39 - WYNN showed relative weakness to SPY - Short the break of the round # - News came out at 10am, i should have known this and been flat into the #. - Number comes out, vicious headfake up to stop us out (geez was in this trade too), straight to tgt 4 minutes later - out -0.38 (sick slippage) 0-3.. 2 of these probably could have been prevented.. http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/07/27/2010-07-27-trades/
9:43 SHORT WDC 28.44 STOP 28.51 TGT 28.3 out +0.12 slip, moved tgt when it printed 28.3 9:53 SHORT WDC 28.36 STOP 28.45 TGT 28.18 out - 0.09 9:59 SHORT ESRX 42.55 STOP 42.71 TGT 42.23 out +0.31
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100728/spy.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100728/wdc2min.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100728/esrx.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100728/rimm.png"> 9:43 SHORT WDC 28.44 STOP 28.51 TGT 28.3 i got killed on 2 min plays yesterday so I said I'd lay off. After this setup showed itself I figured I'd play half size - WDC on daily short watch - WDC very weak from the open - Super tight lower high sets up - out +0.12 (slip, moved tgt when it printed 28.3) 9:53 SHORT WDC 28.36 STOP 28.45 TGT 28.18 - One more time - out - 0.09 9:59 SHORT ESRX 42.55 STOP 42.71 TGT 42.23 - ESRX on short watch due to daily pattern - ESRX gapped down more than SPY and stayed weak - Tight lower higher, SPY in our favor, short under it - out +0.31 15:15 LONG RIMM 55.33 STOP 55.23 TGT 55.53 - The entire market has been selling off since the 2pm beige book - RIMM held the whole time especially during the strong SPY selloff from 3pm onward - Look for longs when SPY calms down - Long over the tight bar - out +0.2 Nice bounce back from yesterrday http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/07/28/2010-07-28-trades/
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100729/spy.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100729/rimm.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100729/bmc.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100729/tlm.png"> 9:51 SHORT RIMM 54.79 STOP 55.01 TGT 55.35 - SPY gaps up and shows a little strength before heading lower - RIMM gaps up slightly and tanks - Short the lower high - out -0.22 9:56 SHORT BMC 35.99 STOP 36.19 TGT 35.59 - BMC gaps down vs. SPY's gap up - Clean small lower high sets up. - out +0.36 (slip). Just beautiful this setup. 10:17 LONG TLM 17.32 STOP 17.27 TGT 17.42 - TLM showing alot of relative strength to SPY - Long over the higher low hoping to catch a turn in SPY - out -0.06 (slip) 10:21 SHORT BMC 35.28 STOP 35.42 TGT 35.00 - See above. - out -0.12 http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/07/29/2010-07-29-trades/
This is where I was at this time last year Puddles (check out the win %): Week Ending 7/10/09: Total P/L + 2,707.06 25 trades 12 wins 10 loses 3 b/e YTD Total P/L + 30,112.05 212 Wins 254 Losses 35 B/E Avg. 45.5 % Ratio 1.89
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100730/spy.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100730/wlp.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100730/qcom.png"> <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100730/rig.png"> 10:59 LONG WLP 50.59 STOP STOP 50.39 TGT 50.99 - SPY puts in a big red pullback bar and continues - WLP does not, long over the bar - out -0.20 11:10 SHORT QCOM 38.13 StOP 38.20 TGT 37.99 - QCOM puts in a big pullback bar at 10:55 just like SPY but drifts lower while SPY tries to retrace - Short under the tight lower high - out +0.14 13:38 SHORT RIG 45.83 STOP 45.95 TGT 45.59 - SPY drifting lower but still in the top half of it's daily range - RIG very weak all day, short under the lower high - out +0.24 14:25 SHORT RIG 45.74 STOP 45.89 TGT 45.45 (wanted LOD + 1c) - One more time - took it at +0.12 because I had to get out of the office. Covering early pretty much gaurantees that your short will go straight to target. Geez takes this signal and goes short at my cover and takes +0.15 on the trade. We'll say today was 3-1.. 8-9 on the week 31-35 on the month.. http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/07/30/2010-07-30-trades/