A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100723/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100723/ntap.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100723/abc.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100723/me.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100723/rimm.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100723/rig.png">

9:55

LONG NTAP 42.01
STOP 41.85
TGT somewhere

- NTAP over 42 was on long watch
- Long over the break
- out -0.19 (slip)
- Should have waited for it to establish over 42 more

10:10

SHORT ABC 21.31
STOP 21.48
TGT 21.00

- ABC super weak relative to SPY
- Short under the last bar
- out +0.31

10:13

LONG ME 23.01
STOP 22.92
TGT 23.19

- ME was on my daily long watch list
- Strong out the gate
- Long over the break of the round #
- out +0.18

i could have added at .13 but didn't. geezy did and grabbed a nice +0.20 on it.

10:56

LONG RIMM 55.52
STOP 55.4
TGT 55.76

- I was long RIMM at i believe .36 but I fat fingered while setting up the stop and took it for a few pennies
- A little tilted I took another long over a bar
- out -0.12

13:56

SHORT RIG 45.72
StOP 45.92
TGT 45.32

- SPY super strong between 1-2pm
- RIG making new lows
- Short the tight higher low
- out -0.2

8-10 on the week, 23-26 on the month..

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/07/23/2010-07-23-trades/

 

Hi Puddles,

With trading costs such as comissions / slippage / sizing mistakes what does your win rate have to be to be profitable with this method?

Thanks,

 

about 36-37% to break even...

i'm running 44% since i started this journal which has been through some traditionally bad months to trade (june, july)..

 

Excellent. Glad to see you are making some moola!

 

This is how a 1:2 risk/reward ratio becomes an edge in and of itself and why I recommend this journal to everyone who wants some solid trading advice!

 

stupid day job really clogging up my morning.

10:25

LONG AIG 39.01
STOP 38.82
TGT somewhere up there

out -0.19 in 15 seconds

10:46

SHORT MON 57.54
STOP 57.72
TGT 57.18

out +0.36

 

14:30

SHORT MON 56.54
STOP 56.65
TGT 56.32

 

got to .37, moved stop, out b/e

 

Rigid adherence to positive risk reward ratios does not interest the grail seeker. Thank goodness for the rest of us....

 

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100726/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100726/aig.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100726/mon.png">

10:25

LONG AIG 39.01
STOP 38.82
TGT somewhere up there

- AIG ripping from the open
- missed the first higher low set up, take the next one hoping there's some heat left behind it.
- out -0.19 in 15 seconds

10:46

SHORT MON 57.54
STOP 57.72
TGT 57.18

- SPY strong from the opening but weaking up a bit after 10am
- MON weak and making new lows
- Short the lower high
- out +0.36

14:30

SHORT MON 56.54
STOP 56.65
TGT 56.32

- SPY falling off in afternoon
- MON puts in a tight lower high near it's lows
- out b/e

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/07/26/2010-07-26-trades/