A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Discussion in 'Journals' started by geez, Dec 21, 2008.

  1. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100520/spy.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100520/pwr.png">

    <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20100520/dal.png">

    10:37

    SHORT PWR 20.79
    STOP 20.91
    TGT 20.57

    - Super weak day, basically everything gaps down. Try to only look for shorts
    - SPY tries to retrace with two nice big green bars from 10:25 on
    - PWR heads lower on the 10:30 bar
    - Short below that bar at 20.79

    10:49

    SHORT DAL 12.99
    STOP 13.04
    TGT 12.89

    - Same story as PWR, as SPY tries to retrace DAL heads lower.
    - A few bars test 13.00 but don't break through..
    - With great relative weakness and 13.00 being a support level (round number) we try to short the break
    - DAL quickly runs to 1c of our target where we move our stops to b/e
    - That was as close as we got until 2 hours later when DAL makes a new LOD right at our target
    - fu dal

    1-0-1 today

    I didn't make this post before the game and now the flyers are down 2-0, this is clearly a sign.

    http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2010/05/20/2010-05-20-trades/
     
    #2011     May 20, 2010

  2. No signals in a technical sense, just pattern recognition.. lower highs, higher lowers, relative weakness..
     
    #2012     May 20, 2010
  3. DT3

    DT3

    Geez or puddels,

    I'm half way through the journal but had a question regarding how you scan for stocks to trade. I apologize if this was asked before but you said that you look for stocks that are extended, does that mean stocks that are up or down a certain % in the past x trading days, or are you referring to stocks that have had a gap of x% during the trading day.

    Thanks for sharing, I'm finding the journal very informative and look forward to finishing it. Also great job puddels in keeping things going, continued success to you both.
     
    #2013     May 21, 2010
  4. Basically something that's been moving strong up or down over the past few days..

    Take a look at VRX daily chart up to May 3rd. I'm looking for it to push into new levels (52w high or low) multiple days in a row and closing on the highs (or lows)
     
    #2014     May 21, 2010
  5. DT3

    DT3

    Up to date on the thread, some great stuff here.

    A couple of questions

    1. You said you scan the charts and look for stocks making new highs or lows to take trades in the same direction , but if I'm not mistaken one of the set ups geez mentions is shorting a stock that has had a decent run up after it gaps up and comes down a bit. How do you make the distinction between the two, why are we looking to short it if it has continued to move in the same direction, isn't this a low probability trade?

    2. How do you define buy/sell signals on daily charts, is it just stocks that are making hh/hl and ll/lh? If a stock is basing on the daily chart, and the market continues to move higher/lower are you more inclined to look for trades in the same direction or opposite direction of the market in that stock?
     
    #2015     May 21, 2010
  6. 1. This is only for stocks that are extended on the daily chart. A stock can only run in the same direction at a high velocity for so long.

    2. The daily chart, intra-day chart and relative strength are all taken into account and should correlate. Looks long daily, looks strong intra day and looks stronger relative to SPY and vice versa.
     
    #2016     May 21, 2010
  7. jim c

    jim c

    How about a day of live calls by the master.... puddles...eerrrr I mean geez :D . One day of live calls for old time sake? Thanks Jim
     
    #2017     May 21, 2010
  8. geez

    geez

    Actually...I do, right Puddles?
     
    #2018     May 21, 2010
  9. yup, he does..
     
    #2019     May 21, 2010
  10. 10:30

    LONG ARUN 12.51
    STOP 12.44
    TGT 12.65
     
    #2020     May 21, 2010