A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Discussion in 'Journals' started by geez, Dec 21, 2008.

  1. geez

    geez

    5/12/09:

    1:35 1000 DIA BUY 84.02
    STOP 83.82
    TGT 84.42
     
    #1121     May 12, 2009
  2. geez

    geez

    no time to explain now...but this is not correct...what if BOTH trades went to tgt??
     
    #1122     May 12, 2009
  3. Chances are next to none if both trades were placed around same time and they are exact inverse. The first stop will always hit well before other's target (because of 1:2 ratio) ;-)
     
    #1123     May 12, 2009
  4. geez

    geez

    Look back at entry times of both fas and skf...different times.
    I really didn't want to do the SKF trade, but that setup was just too pretty.
     
    #1124     May 12, 2009
  5. This is exactly what I wanted to know.

    Anyway, guess we are having this whole discussion because SKF position was opened before FAS position got closed. So you were effectively making bet on fin-sector in both direction at the same time.
     
    #1125     May 12, 2009
  6. Thanagar

    Thanagar

    Geez, your DIA trade hit its target, but I was wondering why you didn't select DDM instead, given the lack of volatility in the market at the time of your trade.
     
    #1126     May 12, 2009
  7. geez

    geez

    2:40 1000 DIA EXIT 84.43
    P/L +395.83
     
    #1127     May 12, 2009
  8. snake

    snake

    Geez,

    In your particular case that could have happened, but in the theoretical post I made whereby one takes a volatility bet on both sides of the trade, it wouldn't really be possible.

    I figured with your trade, you had the one going and you leave your trades to play out. Then, the other one made a nice set up shortly thereafter. So, in that situation it would be possible to hit both targets. But, not in a pair trading strategy.

    These are slightly different variations but a similar theme.
     
    #1128     May 12, 2009
  9. Thanagar

    Thanagar

    Geez, your DIA trade hit its target, but I was wondering why you didn't select DDM instead, given the lack of volatility in the market at the time of your trade.
     
    #1129     May 12, 2009
  10. snake

    snake


    On this trade did you set the target and then calculate the stop based on that target? From the charts, that's what it looks like, which is the opposite of what you usually seem to do.

    Thanks.
     
    #1130     May 12, 2009