A 70k bet that I can't make a 50% gain in 2009

Discussion in 'Journals' started by geez, Dec 21, 2008.

  1. S2007S

    S2007S



    Did you stop out of FAS?
     
    #1111     May 12, 2009
  2. geez

    geez


    11:21 1000 BIIB EXIT 48.25
    P/L +374.22
     
    #1112     May 12, 2009
  3. geez

    geez

    5/12/09:


    11:41 800 SKF BUY 44.95
    STOP 44.70
    TGT 45.45
     
    #1113     May 12, 2009
  4. snake

    snake

    You realize you are now on both sides of the financials right! :)

    I guess that's one way to get a 50% win rate (assuming it continues a trend one way or the other and doesn't get choppy).
     
    #1114     May 12, 2009
  5. geez

    geez

    11:51 800 SKF EXIT 45.46
    P/L +394. 45
     
    #1115     May 12, 2009
  6. Thanagar

    Thanagar

    The beauty of this is that Geez lost on the first financial trade, won on the second, and yet made money.
     
    #1116     May 12, 2009
  7. I was thinking about this one day where we only trade in combo i.e. FAS/FAZ or any similar inverse combo(say SSO/SDS). That will surely make life simpler.

    - SU
     
    #1117     May 12, 2009
  8. He just covered FAS loss with SKF and also made profit ;-) Nice going G.

    Ok, every time I'm tempted to do something similar, I think of it as "revenge trading" and don't do it. So the question is, how do I know if it is ok to re-position like this?
     
    #1118     May 12, 2009
  9. snake

    snake

    I think he's just following his rules and both basically hit good setups within close proximity to each other. I don't think he viewed it as a revenge trade.

    The downside of a trade like this (not his trade but an overall strategy) is that a whipsaw can hurt you pretty good and mess up the risk:reward ratio.

    Think of it this way: each winning trade will always trigger the stop loss on the opposite side (if you had a strategy of pair trading these). So, you're maximum win rate on winning trades is 1:1. That is, if you risk $200 on each trade with a target of $400. To get to the $400 target you will hit a stop loss on the other side of the trade for a $200 loss. So, the pair will win $200 net if it works.

    However, you could have a situation where both stops get hit in a whipsaw and you lose $200 twice for a loss of $400 on the pair trade. So you're "real" risk:reward is 2:1 with maximum risk of $400 and maximum reward is $200.
     
    #1119     May 12, 2009
  10. Good point!
     
    #1120     May 12, 2009