95% of traders lose

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by fubar, Jun 2, 2007.

  1. fubar


    Is this why so many traders are drawn to promises of the grail such as Woodies CCI and Jack Hershey SCT?

    And would it be correct to assume that the 5% of profitable traders devise their own methods and avoid the herd.. therefore leaving 100% of losing traders in the CCI and SCT category?

    What is it in the human psyche that causes us to blindly follow others that ridiculously claim to have a method that never has a losing trade.. what is the fatal flaw in our makeup that allows us to ignore common sense?

    I know students of Joseph Campbell would point out the 2 examples above are quite old men and the unconscious may be identifying with the wise old man/cosmic father archetype, even though the claims remain ludicrous they have the aura of the grail because of this unconscious association
  2. Is this libelous?
  3. fubar


    if it is you would have to shut down most of ET :p

    of course I give any of those I may have offended the chance to prove me wrong
  4. jrkob


    I think proper training and infrastructure may have to do with the success of some traders.

    The reason why I'm saying this is because as far as I'm concerned I've done all my career in IB (3 in total) and I am fairly confident that more than 5% of the traders around me are making money lol (and we dont live off bid/ask spreads from our clients...). Traders in my company all have something in common: years of training by senior traders and proper infrastructures: this is very expensive I think for our employers, but yet they may have reasons to do it this way. Traders don't get sent being butchered by the market after 3 months. My training took 3 years, yet I'm a hard headed and slow learner I believe lol.

    What I'm trying to say, is that a beginner trader that starts alone in my opinion doesn't have the same chance of becoming profitable than one that starts with a few senior traders who know the in and out of the market around him, as well as proper mind training a bigger infrastructure can provide.

    Of course some very successful traders are self-made, I just think that for the average lambda trader like me, being provided proper infrastructure and training, helps. In the companies I worked for I saw many more properly mentally trained and adequately capitalised people than Gurus lol.
  5. What about someone who does the SPM thread for several months proclaiming that he has been trading successfully with macd crossover and ma for a couple of years then starts another thread under a different alias where he says indicators are for amateurs and papertraders. Talk about credibility issues.

  6. very insightful post. just like the poster in agent fox mulder's office on the Xfiles people "want to believe". the convolution of language, creating new words and meanings, and actually creating confusion, then solving same are the same techniques used by religions throughout the ages. money being seen as the "saviour" to the wannabe start up capitalist trader types, the exact same tactics work to lure them as worked to lure those afraid of losing their souls in earlier times.

    its truly a fascination dynamic of predator/ prey, misdirection, and preying on the naive' gulliable who actually want to be misled, since they "want to believe" that someone will save them instead of looking inside for the answer.

    very truly yours,
  7. fubar


    He may be suffering from an unconscious identification with the cosmic prankster archetype typified by the joker in a deck of playing cards which is derived from the first Tarot card numbered zero, the fool :p
  8. I don't think people go to the ''gurus'' b/c 95% fail.

    I think 95% fail b/c they go to these gurus.

    The first instinct is to be ''right'' or to ''master the markets".

    Much more important to master yourself.

    It's so easy to pick out the bad traders. They're the guys touting or slamming trading systems and techniques constantly. Always trying to find ''the way".
  9. fubar


    Ahhh good point, didn't think of that, the cause not the effect, interesting
  10. fubar


    I loved that series.. and I did want to believe, if only for an hour each week.. I take your point
    #10     Jun 2, 2007