I have to say when I was a Futures Broker I would raise accounts by soliciting "self-direct" clients who were not doing so well. Needless to say that I had no end of prospects on a daily basis. IMHO I believe that ............ Unless you have had the opportunity to post literally thousands of trades in several different types of markets....... .....................YOU ARE AT A DISADVANTAGE!!! Unless you have watched every tick in the market for at least a year (from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST for ES & NQ) and followed "ALL" the historical charts in the particular market that you wish to trade................... ..................................YOU ARE AT A DISADVANTAGE!!! Unless you have access to realtime data and know how to track intraday price patterns, recognize those patterns, test your ideas with realmoney in realmarkets with realtrades........ ..................................YOU ARE AT A DISADVANTAGE!!! Unless you are aware of what fundamental data effects the market you are seeking to trade ...... ....................................YOU ARE AT A DISADVANTAGE!!! Unless you are aware of what technical data effects the market you are seeking to trade............ ....................................YOU ARE AT A DISADVANTAGE!!! As a broker I met alot of desperate people who were sold a pipe dream about becoming a trader. I would like to take the time to actually thank these "guru's" for making my career. Without them I would not have had any losing traders to disciple back when I was Futures Broker. It is sad to see that these types of false, misleading Castle in the air building advertisements still go on today. People actually think that they can "figure" out the market by themselves and that they can actually build a "system" that will consistently extract $$$ from the market on a consistent basis. Wall Street has spent BILLIONS $$$ over the last 50+ years to be able to make that happen. In the 1990's Analyst were paid tens of millions of dollars to time the market. We still have the 1990's mentality alive and well today in that MANY think that they can do what so many have not been able to do. This is no different than the lottery. Everybody believes that they will be the 1/50 million to win today! The odds are stacked against you before you have even begun. This is no different than having unprotected intercourse with multiple sex partners and believing that the odds are in your favor that you will not catch a venereal disease or have an unwanted pregnancy. The odds are stacked against you before you have even begun. For selfish reasons I must say that I do hope MANY more hopefulls come into the market because that is were I make my money.......(being on the other side of thier trades).
http://www.streetstories.com/Paul_Tudor_Jones.htm http://www.streetstories.com/pb_futures98.html enjoy !!!! surfer
20 cents: It seems in general many hedge fund managers by nature would Not truly and fully disclose (for competition and commercial reasons, I guess) their proprietary methods/systems that are developed with long time reasearch, due to various reasons: Whether the methods/systems are truly good for long time, Whether any much better methods/systems can be found later with a completely different approach, etc. Here is another news (The CMC Trader Review, Dec 2003) for Paul Tudor Jones: Q In the mid 1990's Jones established a software business to develop a black box version of his trading skills. He later abandoned the idea after reportedly reconsidering the comparatively low rates of return, the long payouts and the steep development dollars that it would take to suceed. The trading guru was apparently more comfortable with the fast returns of the markets and doubted the effectiveness of trying to get a computer to outsmart human trading instincts. UQ
TIME AND CHANCE HAPPEN TO ALL. Many of the classic books that traders read, one common theme is that the author had/has lost big time; on average approx 3 times. MANY have lost it all and came back, and MANY have lost it all and never came back. There are plenty of firms, hedge funds, brokers etc who lose and sustain large losses, regards of the trading systems that they have or their formula for success. Theres plenty of bears and bulls; some feel one way will work better than the others way. There where plenty of successful traders and firms who lost it all overnight in the late 80's. Did diversification help them? Then you have the beginners like me who have a BELOW average understanding of the markets and trading systems compared to many of you, yet can pull $14K a month out of the markets with tinny little trades through the equities markets. I cant read a financial statement and am pretty bad at math; whats my secret or formula? Some of the things that I have been doing lately have worked and have been lucky. Sorry, I cant put it into a formula and dress it up with some fancy words; maybe I should and then sell it for $299. I bet I would have plenty of buyers. I have lost $2K the last 2 weeks off of trading after getting into the e minis; its all new to me. I'll keep coming back and learning from my mistakes; but I will do well off the futures in time. Sure the last 3 1/2 years have been 80% failure, yet I have keep falling forward and keeping my goal in sight. Theres no reason why some ex-plumber and high school drop out cant make it. My father failed the California bar exam three times before passing. He is a sharp attorney and has 3 offices in California and been self practicing for 25 years now. There where plenty smarter ones in his class, yet they have never stepped out and gone self employed or touched the amount of cash my father has made. So welcome to the land of opportunity and don't let the "smart ones" discourage you; maybe someday THEY can work next to your side.
I don't understand your first objection - being discretionary in no way implies a lack of technical input. Soros and other discretionary traders use price behaviour to help make their decisions. That's trading off technicals, not fundamentals. A chart contains no fundamental information after all. Secondly, banks definitely do have propietary traders who take large directional bets. Some have withdrawn from this activity e.g. Salomon under Sandy Weill, but Goldman, Bear Stearns and others certainly take aggressive directional positions in the same way hedge funds do.
20 cents: I would think that possibly how to trade time frame could be one of the highly mystical issues in TA. http://www.miapavia.it/homes/ik2hlb/timef.htm As long as we when using TA are not deterred by its flexibility and complexity, "Trading provides one of the last great frontiers of oppurtunity in our economy. It is one of the very few ways in which an individual can start with a relatively small bankroll and actually become a multimillionaire. Of course, only a handful of individuals (such as those interviewed here) suceed in tunring this feat, but at least the opportunity exists. While I hardly expect all readers of this book to transform themselves into super-traders - the world just doesn't work that way - I believe these thought-provoking interviews will help most serious and Open-minded readers improve their personal trading-performance. It may even help a select few become super-traders. --- Jack Schwager, Market Wizards"