95% of traders fail???

Discussion in 'Trading' started by oddiduro, Dec 19, 2003.

  1. I am starting this thread because I wonder more and more if this is true. Did the failures really try? Did they get a market education before they began to trade large sums of money?

    It takes a bachelors degree to be considered a "professional" in some fields. In fields where the potential payscale is that of a good trader > 100000K, the requirements are usually a PHD, which is at least 8 years.

    If a person come up to you and says that he is a doctor, but has no license to practice, and does not heal you, is he a failed doctor, or is he simply a nut????

    Can we truly call someone with an Ameritrade account and some spare time a trader?

    So where does this 95% of all traders fail come from? Where is the statistic?

    I postulate that actual traders, (as defined by solid knowledge, if not expertise, of price analysis, time analysis, volume analysis, news analysis and market psychology) fail at a rate in the single digits.

    Why the double standard??

    Regards
    Oddi
     
  2. Take the Saddam play. What veteran trader lost money that day, who was not a systems trader?

    Regards
    Oddi
     
  3. Saddam gap played exact way the market played when
    saddam accepted UN to search for WMD in Iraq last year.
    Market gaped up and then drop. But this was very obvious


     
  4. DTK

    DTK

    Agreed.

     
  5. I don't think 95% fails. I have read and been told it's 80%
    that fails.

    If it's realy 95%, then i will give up trading today, because i'm
    not sure i made to be among "TOP 5%".

    Just consider that 5% can consist of MMs, hedgefund MGs, top
    Pros....
     
  6. Well, who says it's 80%?

    Where is this data?

    I think well trained traders, people who can actually use the name, fail at a rate far lower. If a trader has even an average system or method, s/he can make a living hitting singles all year, the occasional home run is vacation money, maybe I am oversimplifying things?

    If a trader is as well trained as the undergrad going into a field of study, the odd are in their favor, I would think.

    Regards
    Oddi
     
  7. Come on guys,

    if you define a trader as someone with all the qualities mentioned in a post before then there is barely any trader around, except the ones at professional firms (I do not include prop firms amongst professional firms).

    About the percentage. Who cares about the exact number? First of all, it will NEVER be possible to determine any accurate numbers as none can compile statistics that could come up with the figures. Think about historical data: There is just a handful of professional studies since the inception of futures trading that investigate the profitability of small traders/large traders/ hedgers. Also, there is no historical data on options with different strikes. So, you are asking for data on people who failed in trading and believe anyone would admit their failure?

    I firmly believe that the losers must be above the 90% mark of the total of traders, otherwise where, do you think, does the money, those few successful traders make on a consistent basis come from? I am also 100% sure that almost any purely technical trader over a 10 year period will fail. Now, count the traders who pretend trading on purely technical terms: Its the masses!!! Anyone can claim to have made money over some time and be right. But investigate that individual's performance over the long term. If they still make money then they must belong to the top 5% or so.

    Trading is no fun thing and not easy at all. Trading is a tough job. But most people especially at ET believe that they can implement some system put their feet on the desk and relax and watch the moneystreams coming in. Anyone who claims that trading with such attitude works is a liar but most above all plain stupid. I love that person anyhow because that may just be that person's money I will take from him/her today. I do not claim all guys at ET to put forth such attitude but there are surely unbelievably many. If you don't believe me then investigate the posts at ET yourself.

    Another way of coming up with an interesting %: If you believe that ET represents members of average intelligence and intellect among all traders just get to some popular threads, count the number of intelligent/useful posts and compare to the rest. Define by yourself what you feel is useful and what not. I myself feel supported with by 5% guess by the no. of quality posts at ET.
     
  8. Even if you accept the figure, there is more than 1 way to interpret it. For example:

    - trading is so difficult that 90% of people will never be able to do it

    - 90% of people who try to trade give up or run out of dosh before they become profitable
     
  9. I worked in multiple daytrading firms (prop and non-prop) and from my experiences, 80-90% lose money. (Actually most daytraders break even, but continue lose when adding commish to the daytrading firms.) The owners of firms never want you to hear that because it hurts new blood.

    So now, some firms even go to the extent of marketing to college students as an alternative to college education (believe it or not.. right here on elitetrader!) So they bring their parents money in, and have no prospects if they lose money. The odds are literally better in Vegas. Sad to see the owners this heartless, and desperate.


     
  10. I worked for a futures broker that catered to local, professional and retail traders.

    One day I was talking to a private client broker and he told me that he has not had ONE retail client in 15 years make any significant money daytrading.
     
    #10     Dec 19, 2003