I hear a lot of people throwing this statistic around. Where exactly is this derived from? Was there actually a study done, or is this more of an anecdotal statistic?
I've heard that. Brokers have records that they obviously don't publish. Records for futures brokers are probably a lot more horrendous compared to stock brokers.
I dont know about the 6month part. By fail are we assuming that they burned every penny they had or they got to a point where they just quit?
Based on the Tuco records, 84% of traders lose, 13% break even or make a little, about 3% make some decent coin. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=162253 As to "fail in the first 6 months," who knows. Depends on your definition of failure. I can imagine that a lot of folks play around in the markets for a few weeks or months, get burned and never touch it again. The long-term success rate is more interesting/important IMO.
Full time traders are akin to professional sports players. Take as an example a professional football player. Professional football players do not âappearâ on the pro-team over-night. These players like full time traders have suffered through years of set backs and rejections on their road to success. The path to learning trading success is often littered with busted accounts. Like the football player we have to learn our âdrillsâ to take on any opponent in the market. However a new opponent we have not seen before comes along and he has quickly on the turf with a mild concussion. Before our heads recover from the knock out blow our account is drained (adding to the 90% failure rate). These set backs donât stop those that have faith in themselves. We have faith that our methods are sound. So we go back and revise our trading business plan and start over. And many times another opponent with a different game plan causes the same result. But by now these set backs are less frequent because the trader has mastered their âdrillsâ and is prepared for disaster recovery. Those traders that preserve through this process try to tell neophytes what is in store for them and what will happen. But most ânewbiesâ do not want to listen; so, new traders today scream when they pay the price of admission. Where old traders like myself recover some of the price I have paid over the years.
A better way to put it is that 95% of wannabe traders never become traders. It is misleading to claim that 95% of traders fail. Most of those that fail they were never trader to begin with. Hitting the SEND to place an order does not make you a trader the same way as buying a race car does not make you a race car driver. Use the rules of logic and common sense before drawing any conclusion. example: All men as mortal Mpoumpou is a man Conclusion: Mpoumpou is mortal. is a correct conslusion. Now All men are mortal Mpoumpou is mortal Conclusion: Mpoumpou is a man is the wrong conclusion and a formal logical fallacy. Logic shouldbe taught before the alphabet in pre-school but often I suspect that it is not to the best interest of the establishment.
Based on the Tuco records, 84% of traders lose, 13% break even or make a little, about 3% make some decent coin. ----------------------- That's an interesting stat. First thing that comes to mind: probably the score of mutual funds, also.
unless its a one way bull market... otherwise 95% of traders will fail to be profitable after six months of entering this business. a mentor will improve your odds as they will hopefully prevent major losing days during the learning curve. of the 95% that fail to make money or blow up, some of us take a break but will then keep trying for years and years, some eventually becoming net profitable others never attaining that status but still never giving up..