(...random comment , out of topic, passing through...) haha i thought as well, that @d08 is in his seventies, just because of his profile pic. That's incorrect , and as long as, one stays polite and respectful (yes, forums have one, or another form of hierarchy too, even without that fact, it's a normal behavior, that should be brought, by one, into community), then rational criticism, is the best thing, that we can get for free. And , one of my favourite episodes from Dalio's Principles :
Unfortunately, I deduced that a modification to the setup I settled on at the end of last week might yield better results, so I tested this theory as opposed to sticking with my original “divergence oscillator” plan. What I discovered was that my alteration went a step to far, so I dialed it back one notch. That said however, the approach I was using last Thursday and Friday should still remain my standard method of operation, with the component I just added serving only as a possible aid to carrying out last week’s methodology as originally conceptualized. The other problem is that using this system correctly demands ongoing management (because I need to be able to exit positions while still in profit territory when signals indicate a change in the prevailing winds). Unfortunately, hands-on management is not possible at this time, so the best I could manage thus far was a 63% success rate... However, I’ve given myself to the end of this week to reach my goal of 90%+ daily success rates, so all is not lost quite yet. The average loss was -$5.09 whereas the average gain was +$4.41, so I also have a little bit of work to do in that regard (as well).
Moreover, the error in judgement mentioned above resulted in three of four correct decisions with respect to the binary option account I plan to begin trading live in July, instead of the four for four I would have preferred...
I tried to get around the fact that trading my Numerical Price Prediction system correctly demands the ongoing monitoring of positions (which I am unable to do at this time) by adopting what I’m calling a structural swing trade methodology based on price location within the day range and color of daily candlesticks. However, only six of seven trades were successful (approximately 86%) so I was still unable to manage 93.33%+, and the average loss (–$3.01) was still greater than the average gain (+$2.22) Nonetheless, I would argue that since I bailed prematurely (adjusted my take-profit targets) on all these positions due to my not yet having confidence in this new modification to my trading regiment—EURAUD and AUDJPY should really count as two trades—not four. This would put my average gain at about +$3.33, though it would drag the daily success rate down to only 80%. Still, this would satisfy my personal search for evidence that a relatively high success rate does not necessarily require a relatively low average gain, unless one categorizes a 1:1 win/loss ratio as low, which I don’t. I view it as the minimum acceptable, and define low as anything below this (i.e., 1:2, 3:5, etc.). Moreover, I suspect that once I have enough confidence in this new version of my system to remain with trades until my original take-profit targets are hit, the win/loss ratio will likely increase to something like 2:1 with a corresponding reduction in the average daily success rate being highly unlikely, since my experience suggests there will be numerous days in which I suffer no losing trades at all (i.e. 100% success), but relatively few where my win rate will fall below 80%. That said, I think I will end my reactions to the title assigned to this thread here.
Trade without changing anything for a month, then change something and do it again. Otherwise you'll never know whether you're hitting lucky streaks.
The best way to figure out if your system is profitable is to backtest, automate, forward test, live acct, bank.
Almost to that sweet spot! I managed to create a scalping setup out of my already existing system that looks pretty promising. Sharpe is almost at 3.0, the only thing I'm looking to get a better hold of is my drawdown, I'd like to see it below 2.0. Also, with this being a scalping setup the machine will be trading more often but pocketing gains more often as well.
A month to figure out of a strategy is profitable? Not quite.. In Forex you need at least 2 years. Not very good advice noob