I am so sick of seeing people quote this person or that person. I do not care in the least what opinions others have based on their mistakes. I want to make mistakes on my own, learn from them and not duplicate them. Then make profit from the consistencies I learn do work. Other's opinions are like a$$holes, some just smell better than others and I wash mine twice a day and it's the only one I care about. Stop caring about what others think and start creating some verifiable opinions of your own! The key word ther is verifiable.
I'm saying to look for or create NEW TA not a rehash of tired worn out worthless inconsistent & unverifiable data. There is a ton of that out there already. New TA is limited because so is the tenacity of current traders.
Technical analysis was born as a means of communication the day the markets became too large for single traders to move them (e.g. by cornering them). It is a way of creating order out of chaos, momentum out of noise just like the drummers did on ancient war ships or horn blowers did within the greek phalanx. Those who understand the signal will follow, those who do not will either perish in one way or another or they will adapt through experience as time goes by and books get written and read. Therefore, there will always be 'new ways' of technical analysis, as soon as the proven ways lose their edges. The Turtle Traders were succeeded by the Turtle Soup Traders, then came the Turtle Soup +1 traders and so on. The open minded will always find new ways to communicate through charts and price patterns and hence form temporarilly limited oligopolies. As a technical trader, it is not the aim to predict how or where the market will move, it'll tell you by itself. Your job is to listen, not to talk. The successful generals of the past always started their walk towards victory with an assessment of the situation the way it was rather than a projection of their belief-systems upon the outside world.
I wholeheartedly agree, especially with the last two paragraphs. But just as anything in our world has progressed through technology so should TA but traders are still stuck and helplessly content driving 1980 Chevy's while the rest of the world lives in 2005. The same TA being used today is just a new spin on that 1980 Chevy and that is a shame.
I am not good at interpreting TA to enter a position. But when there is so many sell signals using TA, I sold and I'm glad I did, eventhough they may be losses. I was long cotton until 6 sell signals came up. I closed, then it fell. In conclusion, I think TA is helpful if there are many signals pointing a certain way.
Earlier thier was post comparing trading to operating a business. I am proud to say i've went thorugh the cycle of business success and failure-nearly bankrupt, when i operated a retail store. Intially, the business was successful-because it was new, however as the economy turned, business slowed. I prepared a business plan and gone through the whole 9 yards, however when your emotions are tied to your decisions it makes it much harder to implement logical moves. People will fail at trading because there are factors outside thier control and when you add emotion the factors intensify. I went through a period of holding on to the business even after consulting with my brother who has a doctorate in finance and instructed me to get out and cut my losses. Eventually logic sunk in with a little luck and another company bought my business. I have been an owner of several businesses and this nearly broke me. I took time out of business for 3 years and worked for the government-i stood on the sidelines. It was a very humbling experience. Technical Analysis gives you the signals to make a decision and how you react detemines your success, have the passion to suceed in your heart-but always think with your head.
Based on my personal experience trading I have to disagree with that statement. I use TA to identify POTENTIAL set ups for Intra-day, Swing, and Position Trades. TA is most often the method I use for Intra-day trades. I do not solely use TA. TA is much more successful if used with a combination of fundamental Analysis and research. I feel much more confident, and time has proven, that trades are more profitable when all 3 point to the same entry and exit strategy. No method will work unless you protect your principal, trade your plan, and what I think is maybe the most important, trade emotionless and have your head on straight. POTENTIAL is the key word. If the trade as you saw it does not develop, move on, and when you are wrong, get out. TA used properly and knowledgeably is a very powerful tool. What does not work for one persons trading style may work very well for another. Oh... and it always works... except when it doesn't
Ifinitis......I couldn't agree more. Wasn't much of a technician and used to rely on fundamental analysis alone and had some success but, I realized the last couple of months of attending seminars (since, April 2005) left and right and reading up and understanding how the markets work----I have realized something very important. That not everything they teach you even in books is true. Technical analysis as a tool can help your trading but, it is by itself not a panacea. As for 90% of traders losing money. I would guess that 10% of traders do extremely well with maybe, another 10% doing okay. With the huge amount of money involved in the markets each day----I would imagine that there is a greater percentage of winners than 10%. Now, not everyone is going to be a millionaire but, maybe, if you are able to earn $50,000-$100,000 per year----you are doing okay.