90% Profitable Setup

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Spectra, Jan 23, 2007.

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  1. Yes, that is the main point, but most beginners don't have an understanding of risk/reward as it pertains to winning percentage.

    This is what I feel is disingenuous about these claims (well, part of it, anyway).
     
    #161     Apr 2, 2007
  2. Boib

    Boib

    The question remains "is there an edge" even a small one? A small edge played with enought money can be profitable.
    What I'd like to know is what kind of drawdown would one have to endure and for how long?

    Also how long a period was the back test done over?
     
    #162     Apr 2, 2007
  3. To me, the bigger question is 'Is it ethical to describe backtest results as a '90% profitable setup'? In fact, if you have a system that backtests to 90% profitability, you absolutely, positively do NOT have a system that is 90% profitable. The only system that is 90% profitable is one that has been traded over an extended period of time and can produce audited results at 90% win rate. I would suggest that no such system has ever existed.

    If you have backtesting results, you have a system that may or may not be 90% profitable.

    It is easy to make a system that backtests to 90% profitability over a short period. I have done it many times in Amibroker.

    Would I ever trade one of those systems? Absolutely not. It would be like asking the markets to take all my money.
     
    #163     Apr 2, 2007
  4. Spectra, could you respond to this? I am thoroughly baffled by your comments about not wanting people seeing your backtest results and asking questions about your product.
     
    #164     Apr 2, 2007
  5. I have about 5, I'm fine for now. Thanks

    Ok atticus on the screen cap--

    Keep in mind as previously stated this is for only the last 6 months. Once I get my TS switched over I will post the last few years. I'm mainly concerned with the last year or two since markets change personality.

    [​IMG]
     
    #165     Apr 2, 2007
  6. Sure I'll respond.

    I give it out all the time by email but I'd to do so more on a personal level. Like when you register for a free seminar. You dont just click on a free link, you enter your information.. or for a contest at a store.. etc.. If someone is that interested they'll shoot me a message. Two people already did within the last hour. I'd like to get a chance to talk to that person and see what type of trades they are looking for etc.

    CajunSniper / Puretick.com Administrator-Trader
     
    #166     Apr 2, 2007
  7. What type of person wouldn't be looking for a 90% accurate setup?
     
    #167     Apr 2, 2007
  8. Tcbjx9

    Tcbjx9

    loco ones!
     
    #168     Apr 3, 2007
  9. good point
     
    #169     Apr 4, 2007
  10. wojack

    wojack

    Hi Spectra,
    Is the script publicly available for user testing at this point?
     
    #170     Apr 15, 2007
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