90% + probability trading?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by HumbleBobby, Feb 4, 2010.

  1. I heard and read many times that more than 90% or new traders lose money (I did not do the actual research) so the 90% + probability system would go like this:
    100 of the new traders, before they post their real money limit orders; they should post them on this website and all we have to do is take the other side of the trade and have 90%+ probability of making money (no offense to the new traders I am just trying to help)
    I know this is not a new idea, the question is: is there such a system out there?
  2. 1) There's also a 90%+ probability that you will lose money because a large part of the losses arise from commissions and fees, not just capital losses on trades.
    2) If you work a firm with a lot of retail accounts, you can be on the lookout for times when it seems all of the customers are "on the same side of the market". Even still, you can be "wrong" if it's the middle of a trend and not the end of it. :cool:
  3. I guess what you are suggesting is to become a FOREX Broker where we can take the other side of the trade, plus collect the spread and commissions, so that is 90%+ probability trading (No offense to Forex Brokers, seems like a good business)
  4. 1) No. It's just not a consistent way to make money. To quote the famous philosopher Tom Petty, "Even the losers get lucky sometime".
    2) You seem to have a mentality of wanting to "feast" on your clients instead of "developing" them. You'll piss away your life having to constantly prospect for new customers and never getting referrals. :( :mad:
  5. The only system with 90%+ probability is:

    Be greedy when other people are fearful,
    and be fearful when other people are greedy.

    Of course it may take many years for the market to correct from over-pessimism, but if you wait long enough it always works if you are diversified and buying stocks from top companies.
  6. How are those shares of General Motors, Bear Stearns, Enron, Bethlehem Steel, CMGI and Citigroup working out for ya? :eek:
  7. So the question is how the winners get lucky most of the time
  8. If you learn how to read price action, you can see what positions the losing 90% are taking without any need for some complicated system to poll a bunch of them. In other words, the bars are a real time poll of what the losers are doing.