90% failing rate , its true ?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ahmed Solaiman, Aug 5, 2020.

  1. Tradex


    So why do so many traders lose money?
    Is it because they are that bad at predicting the direction of the market?

    No, they lose because trading costs money (commissions, spread, slippage, fees), so even if they can predict the direction of the market 50% of the time, the transaction costs will slowly but surely empty their trading account.

    In the Forex for instance, to earn 10 pips you need to earn 12 pips (assuming a 2 pip spread). On the other hand an 8 pip move against you will make you lose the same 10 pips

    The only way to make money trading is to beat these transaction costs (the spread in this simple example).
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
    #21     Aug 5, 2020
    dardeery and tere like this.
  2. Me too! It was my sister's friend's boyfriend's cousin! :rolleyes:

    #22     Aug 5, 2020
  3. tere


    Are they not good at hiding their prints?
    #23     Aug 5, 2020
  4. MrMuppet


    lol, these days are long gone.

    I wanna see a retailer duking it out with a market maker who quotes across 3000 different assets. There is simply no way to figure out this guys position and he also cannot be squeezed, since he's always hedged.

    There are a few monkey insttitutionals who still punch in orders by hand or use some simple TWAP algos, but these are usually taken by HFT.

    Retail should just stick to trash that nobody wants to trade. There is edge and there is no competition. What's the point rolling the dice in eMinis when you don't even know how basis trading works?
    #24     Aug 5, 2020
  5. Tradex


    Who told you that??

    Put a simple VWAP and an up/down volume indicators on a gold, oil or emini S&P 500 chart and you will see these whales (and algos) in action, every single day.

    The trick is to jump when they jump...
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
    #25     Aug 5, 2020
    Leob and dardeery like this.
  6. tere


    I learnt some basics , Im ready to roll the dice now.
    • How many sided dice would you recommend to use?
    • Should money management related stuff like position sizing also be rolled?
    #26     Aug 5, 2020
  7. MrMuppet


    I'm making markets
    #27     Aug 5, 2020
  8. Tradex


    Good for you, so?
    #28     Aug 5, 2020
  9. Tradex


    Can you hide volume (large transactions in a short period of time)...? :cool:

    These whales (and algos) do essentially two things : they enter the market with big orders (buy low sell high), or they squeeze the market to literally clean the order book.
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
    #29     Aug 5, 2020
  10. tere


    If it happens in short period of time , how can you jump when they jump/ed?
    #30     Aug 5, 2020