That was my point. And the lesser chance of being right equates to a greater chance of being wrong. Does not the greater chance of being wrong suggest a negative correlation?
No, it suggests less of the correlation (not negative). 98% and minus 98% correlation is the same thing. It simply means that the two events are inversely correlated. However, 98% and 2% correlations are totally different in terms of their codependency.
Don't be modest! I would love to have all of my screens as bright as yours! I was and I will be your fan! Its other not very bright lights in ET chandelier I would like to replace with more efficient florescent bulbs!
A long path starts with one step, and death with a thousand cuts starts with one cut. Did you nurse your first injury/cut?
So how is it going? R you blind to colours. You should change your name to REDside (which is the same as wrongside for trading purposes, and is in tune with the colours in your account.
That is accurate if your sample if the overall population of traders. That is a reason why the majority should be losers. Corrollary of your conclusion: if you find a subgroup of traders who violate your conclusion, what do you think you should do or conclude about those traders?
The probability for price to be greater than a certain price during a period of time (0,T) is always equal to twice the probability of the price greater than a certain value at time T. Therefore, being specific about time (for the same above constraint about price) is exactly twice harder. This could be a statistical test to distinguish between weat and ... It is the time that filters those who predict things right based on chance with the help of time, and those who may not. Do you now understand why I use time, and why I post calls with time stamps. Because it is harder with the speficy time and price, and the probs are slimmer if someone were to do it right in a series of calls. 10 calls (with time element) in a row, and the difference between chance and no chance becomes 1000 to 1. (2^10). I made more than 10 calls in this trading forums with time element attached. I was wrong one time with a loss of 6 ticks on NDX.
riskfree Do you realize that if you would buy and add to your position each time you called a top you would have made more money with much less effort. Take a look at your post history and you might learn something.